Alaska salmon LIVE UPDATES: Prince William Sound surpasses 59.7 million fish forecasted

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Prince William Sound's strong run

The 2021 total Alaska salmon harvest made up ground last week on the year to date 2020 harvest (2019 for pinks) and is now up 13 percent compared to the 2019/2020, according to Dan Lesh with McKinley.

Pink salmon are now up 11 percent year to date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2019. As of last week, the 2019 and 2021 YTD pink harvests were about the same. This summer's pink harvest appears to have peaked on the week of August 8, Lesh added.

Across all five salmon species, Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound regions have continued to have standout harvests in recent weeks. They are up 66 percent and 43 respectively respectively from YTD 2020 (2019 for pinks). Prince William Sound has now surpassed the region’s pre season harvest forecast of 59.7 million fish.

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The cumulative statewide salmon harvest is now 7 percent above the same period in 2020 (2019 for pinks), reports McKinley Economist Dan Lesh.

Pink salmon harvests YTD are up 40-41 percent in Southeast Alaska and Prince William Sound compared 2019. For the first time this year, keta salmon harvests exceeded the five year, with harvests particularly strong in the Alaska Peninsula area last week, where the harvest is now up 77 percent from last year.

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Strong pink salmon harvests driving Alaska catch numbers

Alaska's salmon harvests exceeded 5-year weekly averages for a fourth consecutive time last week, driven by strong pink salmon harvests, said ASMI/McKinley economist Dan Lesh.

The cumulative statewide salmon harvest is now 12 percent above the same point in 2020 (using 2019 for pinks).

With the salmon season more than half over, a clearer picture of the total end-of-season harvest should come into focus in the next week or two, Lesh said.

"The biggest remaining unknown is the timing and magnitude of peak pink salmon harvests," he explained.

Typically, the harvest tops out on statistical week 33 (Aug. 8-Aug. 14).

"Already, the pink harvest has surpassed 50 percent of the preseason projection of 124 million fish, despite a slow start to the year," he added.

Total year-to-date salmon harvest numbers are now up over 2020 (using 2019 for pinks) in Southeast (+44 percent), Prince William Sound (+101 percent), and Cook Inlet (+27 percent). The year-over-year harvest is down in all other regions with the exception of Bristol Bay (up 1 percent from 2020).

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Prince William Sound pink salmon coming in strong thanks to wild stocks

As of Monday, Alaska fishermen have harvested 123.3 million fish, making them 65 percent of the way to the projections that say the season will end with 190 million fish harvested across all species.

Through Monday around 64 million pink salmon have been harvested in Alaska, which is nearly 52 percent of the 124 million expected this year.

The majority of that has come from Prince William Sound.

As of Monday, approximately 35 million pink salmon have been harvested in the Prince William Sound seine fisheries, reports ADFG. Wild stocks are returning stronger than anticipated given the uncertainty about spawning success form the 2019 parent year that was assumed to be negatively impacted by drought conditions.

For the Southeast, the pink salmon harvest through August 4 is estimated to be 13.5 million fish and is on track to meet or exceed the preseason forecast, according ADFG.

Pink salmon percent males continue to be above average indicating a later than normal run, reports ADFG. Pink salmon average weights also continue to average 3 pounds or less.

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More than halfway there

Alaska’s salmon harvest surpassed the midpoint of the forecasted harvest last week, according to economist Dan Lesh with the McKinley Research Group.

About 54 percent of this year’s projected harvest of 190 million fish have been caught, he said. The total salmon harvest is now 10 percent above the year-to-date total for last year (using 2019 for pinks). Most of the fish caught last week were pink salmon, which are continuing their early-season surge, particularly in Prince William Sound--which is up 123 percent from 2019!

Southeast Alaska is up 22 percent. The pink salmon harvest usually peaks in mid-August

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Bristol Bay catch surpasses 40 million fish

Fishermen in Bristol Bay have now caught just over 40 million sockeye, nearly 10 percent more than the preseason forecast of 36.4 million fish. This year's record run now sits at more then 64.2 million fish.

Although the total run was record-breaking, this year's harvest will fall short of the 43 million sockeye caught in the region in 2019 and the 44.4 million record set in 1995.

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Waiting for the pinks to show

Fishing for Bristol Bay sockeye is all but finished, and the catch is just shy of 40 million fish, thanks to a record run of more than 64 million fish.

Overall, Alaska’s total salmon harvest is now up 5 percent from the year-to-date total for 2020 (2019 for pinks), according to a Tuesday update provided by the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI).

The total harvest of over 85 million fish so far is now 45 percent of the preseason projected harvest of slightly more than 190 million salmon, but the harvest of pink salmon has not yet peaked. The preseason forecast called for a harvest of 124.2 million pinks. So far, just over 32 million pinks have been caught.

"The pink salmon harvest over the past two weeks has been especially strong and followed a slow start," according to Dan Lesh, a consultant with the McKinley Research Group, which put together the ASMI update.

The total pink salmon year-to-date harvest now only trails 2019's by 8 percent after being down 70 percent two weeks ago. Alaska pink salmon harvests usually peak in early to mid-August. One area of concern, however, is the size of the pinks harvested. The fish have been generally smaller. In Prince William Sound, where fishing has been strong, fish size is down 4 percent.

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How does the 2021 compare?

At around 39.3 million sockeye salmon harvested, Bristol Bay fishermen are seeing harvest levels nearing last year's.

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A record run in Bristol Bay

Bristol Bay’s sockeye salmon run set a new record with 63.2 million sockeye returning to the world's largest sockeye watershed as of July 20, besting the 2018 record of 62.9 million fish.

Catch rates in the Bay slowed significantly this week. Nevertheless, the total sockeye catch now stands at 38.6 million fish, exceeding the preseason forecast of 36.4 million fish.

“This season’s record-breaking salmon run is a reminder of what’s at stake, and what we could lose if we don’t protect Bristol Bay from the proposed Pebble Mine, said Katherine Carscallen, director of the group Commercial Fishermen for Bristol Bay.

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Attention turns to pinks

With the Bristol Bay sockeye run coming to an end, the attention is now turning toward Alaska pink salmon catch.

Last week saw an early season surge of pink salmon with 9.5 million of the fish harvested, according to a weekly summary provided by the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute.

The harvest spike was driven by the Prince William Sound region, where pink salmon harvests year-to-date are up 21 percent compared to 2019. However, in other regions of the state, pink harvests are currently well behind the 2019 pace, according to the weekly summary.

Statewide, just over 21 million pinks have been harvested so far. The preseason forecast called for a harvest of 124.2 million pinks.

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Starting to wind down

At 38 million fish as of July 18, the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest has now gone well beyond what was forecasted by Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG). However, fishing is starting to slow down in many major river districts.

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Mission accomplished

The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest has now hit its forecast of 36.4 million fish as of July 15, although fishing is starting to slow down in some of the river districts. That's still about 18 percent more fish than what was harvested at this time last year.

The Nushagak River has slowed quite a bit down since the early days in July, hauling in 63,000 fish. Meanwhile the eastside districts that include Ugashik, Egegik and Naknek-Kvichack hauled in a total of 652,000 fish.

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Approaching forecast levels

As of July 14, fishermen in Bristol Bay have harvested a little over 35 million fish, getting closer and closer to ADFG's predictions for a 36.4-million sockeye harvest for the season.

The total run currently stands at nearly 57 million, which is around 14 percent above the 50 million fish ADFG predicted would return to the bay this year.

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Almost there

Thursday morning, the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest stood at 33.49 million fish fish, pushing it to over 90 percent of the preseason harvest forecast of 36.4 million fish. While fishing on the Nushagak has slowed from its torrid pace in early July, eastside fishing districts are picking up steam.

Over 6.7 million fish have been harvested so far in the Egegik District, and nearly 6.9 million have been caught in the Naknek-Kvichak District. The Nushagak catch sits at more than 16.9 million fish.

Eastside finally picking up

Thanks to more fish on the Eastside, Bristol Bay fishermen have hauled in a little over 31 million fish. The Ugashik hauled in 616,000 sockeye on July 12 , and the Naknek-Kvichak hauled in 698,000.

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Bristol Bay catch now nearly 75 percent of preseason forecast

After another busy weekend on the water, the total harvest of sockeye in Bristol Bay now stands at 26.7 million fish, 73 percent of the 36.4 preseason catch forecast.

The Nushagak District, as it has from the start of the fishery, leads all other fishing areas in Bristol Bay with a catch of nearly 15 million fish. The Egegik and Naknek-Kvichak combined so far account for 10.4 million fish.

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Four days of over 1-million-fish catch

Bristol Bay's Nushagak River district has now experienced four consecutive days in a row with catches over 1 million that occurred July 4-8.

The district's total catch through July 8 at nearly 13.6 million makes up nearly 38 percent of the 36.4 million fish ADFG forecasted would be harvested this year. A total of nearly 22.9 million fish have been harvested through July 8 of this year.

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Bristol Bay's eastside is picking up steam

Things have been booming in Bristol Bay's westside fisheries this summer. But the eastside is also starting to come online.

ADFG reported that on July 7, fishermen working the eastside of the bay harvested 561,000 fish in the Naaknek-Kvichack, 206,000 fish in the Ugashik and 610,000 in the Egegik river districts.

Thanks largely to the mighty Nushagak, the total number of fish caught through July 7 now account for around 58 percent of the 36.4 million fish ADFG forecasted to be harvested in Bristol Bay this season.

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Data from Port Moller is showing Bristol Bay's Nushagak river district has crossed the 50 percent point for its season totals, with the total harvest set to top 20 million.

Meanwhile Bristol Bay's Eastside district, which includes the Naknek-Kvichak and Egegik/Ugashik areas, is trailing predictions.

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More records set amid windy weather

High winds didn't stop Bristol Bay's Nushagak district fishermen from setting another single-day catch record at over 1.8 million fish on Thursday, smashing the previous day's record. The total catch in Bristol Bay as of July 1 now stands at 9 million, which is nearly a quarter of the way to the 34.6 million fish ADFG predicted would be harvested this season.

However fishermen have reported high winds in the bay. On June 30 Alaska State Troopers responded to calls of a boat taking on water.

Fisherman dies in boat sinking

Alaska State Troopers received a call around 5 a.m. Thursday morning that the vessel was taking on water and three people were in the water.

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Nushagak sets single-day record

Wednesday's harvest in Bristol Bay's Nushagak river district set a single-day record for sockeye salmon with nearly 1.8 million fish caught.

This year's Bristol Bay total sockeye harvest stands at nearly 6.5 million fish, which is 24 percent ahead of the previous five-year average through June 30. The total Bristol Bay sockeye harvest forecast is for 36.4 million fish. The total run in Bristol Bay is at around 10.6 million.

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'A less compressed run'

After a slow start to the season, the pace of salmon harvests is picking up, according to Dan Lesh, a consultant with McKinley Research Group.

The total number of salmon harvested is now about 82 percent of last year’s total at this point (2019 for pink salmon), up from 67 from last week.

Pink salmon harvests are down so far compared to 2019, but peak harvest is not expected for more than a month.

Bristol Bay's sockeye harvest continues to be outpacing last year's. As of Tuesday, there have been just over 4.1 million fish caught, more than double what was harvested at this time last year.

"Early indicators from the Port Moller test fishery point to a 2021 total Bristol Bay harvest in line with the preseason forecasts, with potential for a less compressed run and particularly strong Nushagak area harvests," said Lesh.

Inching over 3 million

Since Sunday, over 3 million sockeye have been caught in Bristol Bay, with the highest-performing rivers districts continuing to be the Egegik and Nugashak. The Naknek-Kvichak fishing is also starting to come online.

The data coming out of the Port Moller test fishery, which experts say typically is a good indicator of run strength, so far matches the University of Washington's preseason forecast of a Bristol Bay sockeye run of 50.9 million fish, according to Curry Cunningham, a fisheries ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks who researches salmon runs in Bristol Bay.

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The run is on

The Bristol Bay total run is a little over 1.9 million as of June 24. The total catch is 734,003 and total escapement is at 572,194. The total run is more than three times what it was at this time last year, when it was 615,820. The total catch is five times larger than it was at this time last year at 90,800, according to ADFG.

Other areas for Alaska salmon fishing are more of a mixed bag.

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Bristol Bay's summer salmon season is ramping up. On Monday ADFG announced the harvest through June 20 in Bristol Bay's Egegik District was 53,000 fish, bringing the season total to 136,000 fish.

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Fresh figures from the Copper River salmon fishery show that Tuesday's fisheries opener was the best haul for sockeye so far, giving disappointed fishermen and processors a glimmer of hope for the remainder of the season.

The Alaska Department of Fish & Game announced Thursday that another opening will take place Monday, June 14.

The harvest timing for sockeye remains roughly in-line with last year:

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Small signs of life in Copper River fishery

Weeks after the last opening, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) announced Tuesday that commercial fishing in the Copper River district would be allowed on Wednesday, June 9 for 12 hours.

The cumulative sonar count through June 8 was 220,989 fish, slightly shy of the 245,631 fish that were projected by this date to meet the in-river run goal.

The last commercial fishing opening in the area was May 24, putting this season's catch around the level of last year's dismal harvest, but well below 2019 and the five-year average.

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Deja vu

ADF&G announced to fishermen's dismay the Copper River District will remain closed to commercial fishing over the weekend. The next commercial opener could be announced Monday, the agency said.

Alaska direct-to-consumer salmon company Paradigm Seafoods described experiencing "deja vu" in its recent post on the lackluster season.

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Closed (again)

The Copper River fishery is closed yet again, said ADF&G.

To date, the sonar count is the 13th lowest on record since 1978. Cumulative commercial harvest this year is the fourth lowest harvest to-date in the last 50 years. Cumulative sonar count through June 1 is 63,585 fish, whereas 148,048 fish are projected by this date to meet the district's in-river run goal.

The season is shaping up to be slightly worse than last year in terms of canceled openers.

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Another missed opportunity

Copper River salmon fishermen in Alaska are entering yet another week with no opener.

To date, the sonar count is the 13th lowest on record dating back to 1978. The cumulative commercial harvest is the fourth lowest harvest to date in the last 50 years, according to ADF&G.

The cumulative sonar count through May 31 was 54,154 fish, which is only around 41 percent of the fish expected to pass through Miles Lake Sonar Station, where fishery biologists use sonar to estimate the salmon escapement in the Copper River.

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E&E Foods to buy again from Alaska's Kuskokwim Bay

Alaska Fish and Game Assistant Area Management Fishery Biologist Ben Gray said that commercially harvested Kuskokwim Bay salmon will have the same buyer as last year: E&E Foods. The Seattle-based company buys fish across Alaska.

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Bristol Bay kicks off

The 2021 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon commercial fishing season has officially opened for business.

Alaska fisheries officials announced the first fishing opening began Tuesday in the Naknek-Kvichak District, and will run until June 25. Fishing in the Egegik river district during its first opening will continue until June 18. Fishing in the Ugashik District has also begun and will continue until June 23.

Early season fishing tends to be light. The bulk of the famous Bristol Bay run usually arrives in force during the first week of July.

The total run, if it reaches 50 million fish, would be nearly 4 percent greater than the most recent 10-year average of Bristol Bay runs (48.14 million) and 42 percent greater than the long-term average of 35.12 million fish.

A Bristol Bay harvest of 36.4 million fish would be around 13 percent greater than the most recent 10-year harvest of 32.23 million, and around 66 percent greater than the long-term average harvest of 21.88 million salmon.

Opening dates for other river districts have not yet been announced.

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Slow sales at retail, more direct-to-consumer demand

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Two openers in, but icy conditions persist

Preliminary harvest estimate from the 12-hour period that occurred on Monday, May 24 was 2,000 Chinook and 32,700 sockeye salmon with 448 deliveries reported. This compares to a projected harvest of 56,100 sockeye salmon for this period.

Icy and cold conditions continue to prevent Copper River salmon from making their way to fishermen's nets.

So far, there have been three open fishing periods in the Copper River district, beginning with the May 17 opening, followed by May 20 and May 24.

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Copper River salmon prices start off high (as usual)

Saying Copper River salmon is expensive this time of year is like saying the sky is blue. It's a given that early buyers will pay ridiculous amounts for the fish.

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Despite a meager harvest, customers remain eager

While numbers remain dismal, ADFG said there will be a Thursday fishing period for Copper River salmon. The 12-hour opener starts at 7:00 am (AKDT).

The final tally for the first Copper River opener Monday was not great. ADFG recorded a total catch of 1,960 kings and 8,200 sockeye, with 399 deliveries reported. This compares to a projected harvest of 27,100 sockeye salmon for this period, meaning the sockeye harvest was only 30 percent of what was anticipated.

In 2020, the Copper River sockeye harvest during the first opener was 1,500 fish, 12 percent of what ADFG projected at 12,400.

Some fish is even starting to trickle down to high-end retail.

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Catch numbers in for first Copper River opening

The first figures have been released for the Copper River salmon harvest. Here are the numbers, from the Alaska Department of Fish & Game:

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Salmon fishing is a family affair

"They’re not on the flats all season, so you have to get them right away," the second-generation Cordova fishermen who runs the direct-to-consumer business Wild Delta Seafoods explained. "In about a month, even three weeks you won’t be catching many of them."

Balint, who is 28 has lived in Cordova, Alaska his entire life. He purchased the permit for fishing as well as his boat from his own father.

"There are so many young fishermen my age. It's a thing around here," he added.

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The fish have arrived!

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In total on Tuesday the airline is flying nearly 55,000 pounds of salmon to Seattle by Alaska Air Cargo – the first of many shipments expected this season, which runs now through September.

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Prices are in

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Slow fishing, hopeful customers

The first day of fishing in the Copper River has proven slow, but fishermen remain optimistic.

"The forecast being 47 percent below the 10 year average didn’t make it too exciting," he said. "But there are more fish than last year's first opener."

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'Let's hope some fish show up'

Alaska's Copper River sockeye salmon fishing district opened Monday for a 12-hour commercial fishing period.

"Let's hope some fish show up for work this year," said Longtime Cordova Fishermen Bill Webber Monday in a Facebook post at the start of the fishing period.

On Tuesday, the iconic first fish will be donated by OBI Seafoods to the Seattle nonprofit, We Got This Seattle.

The public has been invited to bid on a Copper River salmon dinner prepared by celebrity chefs as a fundraiser for the organization, which feeds frontline workers and supports Seattle restaurants.

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Copper River salmon is never cheap

Though some years are better than others, one thing is for certain, Copper River sockeye and king salmon is always consistently well above standard market prices, thanks to some genius marketing, and some genuine pent-up demand.

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Sockeye supply reduction looms over market

"It looks like we're going to be seeing a huge reduction," Wink said, noting 2013 was the last time sockeye salmon experienced similar market conditions.

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Farmed salmon is pricier this year

The early weeks of the Alaska salmon season see strong volumes of fresh fish hit retail cases, putting fresh sockeye fillets alongside the mainstay farmed salmon. This year, wild salmon hits the fresh market with a much, much stronger farmed salmon price, which could make those early season wild salmon prices seem a little less extreme:

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How much Alaska salmon was caught last year?

It wasn't a great year in 2020, for a lot of reasons.

Adjusted for inflation, it is the lowest ex-vessel value for the fishery since 2006.