Brede Lofsgaard, sales manager with Mitsubishi-owned salmon farming giant Cermaq, said that even with all the stress and strain of the coronavirus pandemic on seafood markets, the salmon sector fared better than it could have hoped.
"Even though week 49 was the lowest December price since 2012, I would sum up the year as being positive," Lofsgaard told IntraFish.
"We need to have some perspective -- prices are only a few percent lower than what most people have budgeted for."
Though the initial shock threw global markets into chaos, the salmon industry's ability to adapt and recover was remarkable, Lofsgaard noted, and he said the sector is poised to emerge even stronger, particularly given its success at retail.
Cermaq was most uncertain how consumption habits would move in different countries as the lockdowns took hold.
"Markets reacted differently," Lofsgaard said. "The first month or two went in many different directions, but it was not long before our core markets in Europe showed great strength."
Core markets including Germany, Spain, France and Italy recovered well up until the second wave, he noted.
Smoother European logistics played a role in the markets' recoveries.
Although there have been several challenges associated with China, Lofsgaard is more optimistic about that market.
"The behavior of the Chinese is almost back to normal, people are out eating and there are, at least officially, low coronavirus numbers," Lofsgaard said.
"You can't see it so clearly in Norwegian export statistics, but if you look at exports to China from Tasmania, Chile and the Faroe Islands, the country is on a good trend and is now about halfway back to normal for its total salmon purchases."
A look ahead
Though it's too early to conclude how coronavirus will affect Cermaq's 2020 results, "nothing drives demand like a crisis," Lofsgaard said.
In 2011 and 2012, he noted, where there was a sharp upswing after a period of extremely low prices.
"For example, we see in the US that the lower market prices have quickly benefitted consumers," he said. "That alone will lead to increased demand for salmon. Bear in mind that we have never eaten more salmon than we did this half year in the world."
Cermaq sold 72,000 metric tons of Norwegian salmon in 2019, 30 percent more than the year prior.
Next year's production picture is, in Lofsgaard's view, looking flat. Kontali's latest report put Chile production down 14 percent, and Norwegian production up 5 percent.
But on the demand side, he believes Cermaq can keep those customers and grow it as people emerge from the lockdowns.
"Many of the consumers you have gained through this change do not necessarily disappear when restaurants are open again, and there can be a kind of double effect when people go out and eat again," Lofsgaard said.
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