Wednesday, June 18 12.20 p.m. C.E.T
No worries over lack of marine raw materials for feed: Skretting
Skretting has a goal to optimize feed, and although there are concerns over a lack of fishmeal and fish oil, Viggo Halseth, chief innovation officer at Nutreco, said he is not worried.
Between 2008 and 2013, and additional 700,000 metric tons of fish feed have been produced, however over the same period there has been 50,000 tons less marine oil and 115,000 metric tons less marine proteins used.
“We just need a good understanding of nutritional needs and find other raw materials – it is always possible but we need to spend resources to find it,” Halseth said.
In terms of fishmeal, Halseth conceded that it will be a challenge, “but it is do-able because there are many other proteins available.”
Likewise for fish oil, it should be just as easy to find alternatives, however today these alternatives are simply not affordable in the volumes needed. “It is no problem to be independent of marine resources, but we will have more options when alternative prices reduce,” he said.
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Wednesday, June 18 12.05 p.m. C.E.T
Projected aquaculture growth may not cope with surging demand
The projected growth in aquaculture production, may still not be enough to cope with the surging consumer demand, according to Skretting’s Viggo Halseth.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of aquaculture is predicted to be around 5 percent between 2010 and 2030, and 2 percent for the ten years after that.
However, the consumer demand over the same period, 2010-2030, is projected to grow 5.6 percent per year. This will result in a supply-demand gap of between 50-70 million tons, Halseth said.
While efficiency will be the driver of sustainable growth, political will, research, innovation and training will also be extremely important, Halseth said.
Meanwhile, at the moment there is a lack of production sites, and there are two main ways of getting more fish from these limited resources; either create more production sites or farm more product from the existing sites, Halseth said.
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Wednesday, June 18 10.00 a.m. C.E.T
Land-based and offshore to lead technological development
With the “exponential challenges” of farming in coastal zones, producers are increasingly looking to alternative ways and places to farm their fish, according to Trond Williksen, CEO of Akva Group.
At the moment, most salmon farms and cages are located in the coastal zone, close to the shoreline, where there are a number of vested interests.
In these zones there are is a concentration of stakeholder interests, issues with water quality, problems of available space for expansion, not to mention the environmental impacts of concentrated activities, “all things that impact the sustainability of the industry,” said Williksen.
“As a result the main focus of technological innovation has been focused on this coastal zone. It is about resource allocation and finding solutions to continue to operate.”
Over the past two years Williksen has seen a trend of operators seeking alternatives to operating in these coastal zones, in particular a move towards land-based farming and more exposed offshore farming.
The development of land based, recirculation and closed containment technologies, is “expanding the room of possibilities for aquaculture going forward,” said Williksen.
Meanwhile, Williksen sees a new production paradigm happening. In general, at the moment the production process usually consists of land-based production of egg, fry and smolt followed by on growing in cages based at sea. The fish is then transported to its market place.
However, Williksen thinks the first two steps could ultimately be combined into one facility on land and could even go as far as relocating this one facility to the market place, cutting out the transport.
“Is it financially viable? It still remains to be seen. Indications are it could be competitive in terms of production costs,” he said.
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Wednesday, June 18 9.00 a.m. C.E.T
Lego lessons: Building success
Delegates were treated to a crash course in innovation to kick-start the second day of the AquaVision 2014 conference in Stavanger.
Professor David Robertson told the story of LEGO and how the company “rewrote the rules of innovation” to bring it back from the brink and conquer the global toy industry.
Outlining many great examples of innovations over the years Robertson explained the concept of finding a new match between a solution and a need.
“It is not about finding a new solution but finding a new way of satisfying that need,” Robertson said.
According to Robertson to survive the digital age, companies have to think about creating an “eco system of innovation” surrounding their products with complementary products and services.
“It is to do with the incremental improvements of existing innovations, he said, while at the same time interacting with customers, listening to feedback from fans and acting on it."
LEGO – one of the most famous toy brands in the world – came back from the brink of bankruptcy in 2004, by following this strategy.
Nowadays the company has an annual sales growth of 23 percent and annual profit growth of 38 percent, according to Robertson.
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Tuesday, June 17 15.35 p.m. C.E.T
It is a borrowers market once again
The volatility in the financial markets over the last two years has started to go down and markets are heading in the right direction again, Harald Serk-Hanssen, group executive vice president of DNB Bank, told the audience at AquaVision 2014.
As a result, Serk-Hanssen is predicting further strong growth in the Norwegian seafood market, which is already the second largest exporter of seafood in the world.
“Norwegian seafood business will grow five fold in the next 35 years,” said Serk-Hanssen. “Growth and consolidation is to continue and the cyclical nature of banks mean that it is a borrowers market again,” he said.
Banks are now in fact coming after clients and are prepared to go further on the risk scale, looking more at the rewards rather than the risks.
However, Serk-Hanssen urged companied to use window of opportunity while financing is cheap. The banking market is very liquid and costs are at their lowest level for five years after banks have decreased their balance sheets and increased equity.
Meanwhile, the bond market is also expanding and more and more companies are using it as an alternative source of financing, Serk-Hanssen said.
However uncertainties remain and tomorrow will not be like today, he warned.
“You must use this window of opportunity to make sure you have a diverse source of funding, while you can,” he said.
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Tuesday, June 17 15.00 p.m. C.E.T
Sir Bob Geldof tells industry to work together with NGOs
Although he had done his research on the aquaculture industry and read numerous reports from organizations such as the FAO, the World Bank, the Africa Progress Panel and McKinsey among others, Sir Bob Geldof came to AquaVision to tell delegates ultimately about the longterm damage human kind has done to the earth by depleting its natural resources.
“We are in a period of fundamental change, a time where we have already passed the regenerative capacity of the earth and taken everything that we can replace,” he told the audience in a rather sobering speech on the state of the planet’s resources and our human desire to consumer more and more and more.
“Our natural resources are being used up faster than they can be replenished, and now the notion of sustainability on what is a planet with finite resources is literally impossible.”
However, Sir Bob said this state of “disequilibrium” in the world, can be worked upon.
While acknowledging, industries such as aquaculture are “vital” he added that “at the same time you are messing with the natural processes of nature, which makes consumers suspicious.”
“It is to do with the right management of the production, it is about allaying fears of the consumer, you have to deal with that first,” said Sir Bob.
For this task, Sir Bob stressed the importance of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Consumers are unable to trust or believe governments but NGOs are much more persuasive and consumers listen to them.
“NGOs are allowed to shape policy where leaders cannot,” Sir Bob said. “They may be annoying but it is better than getting products blacklisted. You do that stuff NGOs want you to do not to get them on side, but because it makes business sense.
“Aquaculture is vital, but needs to be articulated with NGOs and explained and transmitted to the consumer,” he said.
Unless explained and told to people in a logical way, the aquaculture industry will always face criticism and struggle to be accepted, in the same way GM crops have had a hard time.
“This is where there is a great importance of cooperation with NGOs such as Friends of the Earth or Greenpeace.
“The focus should be on compromise not competition. The aquaculture industry has to acknowledge that yes there are problems, such as sea lice, but we are dealing with it. It is about compromise, consensus, cooperation, not competition,” he said.
Meanwhile, Sir Bob, tried to explain the vast growth potential in Africa for international companies, and could not understand why countries, other than China, were so hesitant to invest in the continent.
“There is a great world of opportunities in Africa, and the returns are bigger there than in any other market, I cannot understand why people are unwilling to go and invest,” he said.
“The Chinese see it, they have been jumping in there even as the West has gone crawling to China.”
According to Sir Bob Africa is a new frontier, you have to go in, treat people with respect, and work with them, adding “corruption isn’t as bad as people think.”
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Tuesday, June 17 11.40 a.m. C.E.T
China in flux
The blue revolution in China is over and now it must focus on moving up the value chain, Philippa Jones managing director of China Policy, told delegates at AquaVision 2014.
Increasing competition and pressure from import and export markets requiring China to be a stronger international player, means the country’s industry is in flux and set for a 10 year transition period, said Jones.
However, the central government's restructuring process aims to deliver increasing value for aquaculture while saving on land and water. Talking about "policy paradoxes", Jones said that while the government is good at creating policy, at the same time it makes it difficult to implement.
For example, the country want to promote the use of more technological advances; improved feeds and more high tech cages for example, however at the same time local government wants to make sure as many people are employed as possible.
But “the buzz word is quality” said Jones, and China is “taking one step backwards before making two steps forwards while it restructures aquaculture.”
Reform will be painful, and China must overcome many challenges, but the intentions are there, said Jones.
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Tuesday, June 17 11.10 a.m. C.E.T
A depressed man with a smiley face
The world population will not reach 9 billion by 2050, rather it will peak at 8 billion in 2040 and then decline, according to Jorgen Randers, professor of climate strategy at the Norwegian Business School, dispelling a lot of previously accepted facts within the aquaculture industry.
In his forecast 2052, Randers said the world population and economy will grow much slower than most people expect, while consumption is set to “stagnate” because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital on repair and adaptation.
“The short term nature of man – reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism – is the root cause of this development,” Randers said.
Randers said global consumption of food will rise by 60 percent to 2052, however this is “not much, rather it is totally feasible, and even sustainable.”
No matter what, Randers said there will still be starvation in 2052, unless someone produces cheap food, “which is unlikely” he said. “Food will satisfy global demand, but not need which is different,” Randers said.
“There will still be large scale starvation in 2050 for the same reason as there is now and was 40 years ago. Africans do not have enough income to produce food; it is an income problem not planetary restraints.”
There will be enough food – for those that can pay, Randers said.
While the demand for high quality protein will explode, Randers believes it will be chicken rather than fish that will win this race, but seafood will come in a close second.
That said all additional fish will come from aquaculture, as the wild catch is at its limit and only protected fisheries will survive. Meanwhile, grass-fed GM fish is very likely to become the norm, he said.
At the beginning of his presentation, Randers told the audience he was a depressed man with a smiley face, following 40 years fighting for a more sustainable future. At the end he told delegates, “I do not like what I see” but invited them to challenge his theories, and prove him wrong.
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Tuesday, June 17 10.35 a.m. C.E.T
More food needed in next 36 years, than in the last 8,000
With the growing population, it is estimated that more food will need to be produced in the next 36 years than has been produced in the preceding 8,000 years, Jose Villalon, corporate sustainability director at Nutreco told delegates at the AquaVision 2014 conference.
“Our challenge will be how to do this while managing the environmental footprint,” he said.
While there is not enough land available on the planet to supply double the current production output that we need, there are “vast amounts of open water areas which are underutilized,” Villalon said.
“Aquaculture can become more efficient and utilize open waters to become a viable tool to feed the surging demand for food if done responsibly.”
But it is more than this, said Villalon.
Referencing the Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa, which can be tied in part to food and water shortages, Villalon said food security is fast becoming part of national security, and once again aquaculture can help address food security, if done responsibly, he said.
Meanwhile, fish and seafood should position itself as a better option to most other proteins available.
Compared with other proteins, fish performs favorably on a number of different indicators, and the industry should not compete with rival seafoods but with the other ‘center plate proteins’, such as beef poultry and pork.
For example, according to Villalon, Atlantic salmon produces an edible yield of 68.3 percent, compared to lamb’s 38.2 percent. Meanwhile, salmon’s feed conversion rate is 1.15, while beef is more than 10.
In terms of protein retention, fish is much more efficient than land animals. In terms of commodity grain use, the production of 1 kilogram of finfish protein requires 13.5 kilogram of grain, compared with 61.1 kilograms of grain for beef protein and 38 kilograms for pork protein.
“In all cases, from a resource efficiency perspective, fish is the smart and responsible choice,” Villalon said.
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Tuesday, June 17 10.05 a.m. C.E.T
Private investment in disease management crucial for success
For sustainable growth in the aquaculture sector, the must be more engagement from different participants, the World Bank’s James Anderson told the audience at the AquaVision 2014 conference.
“The engagement of the private sector is essential for success,” he said. “We would like to see more projects getting off the ground but everything happens much slower than we would like.”
In particular, Anderson said it was important there was more focus on tackling diseases, which is still the main challenge facing the aquaculture industry.
Even though there have been around 4 epidemics in the past 20 years, there is "only on guy in the US who has been able to classify the diseases."
“There is much more investment needed from somebody, somewhere on disease management,” he said.
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Tuesday, June 17 9.36 a.m. C.E.T
World Bank funding to exceed $1 billion
Lending from the World Bank to aquaculture and fisheries projects has been growing rapidly over the years, and has reached around $850 million so far, but this is expected to exceed $1 billion in the near future, according to James Anderson.
“Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector… and will account for 50 percent of supply for both human and non-human consumption by 2030,” he said.
The sector already accounts for 50 percent of human consumption supply but this will climb to two thirds by 2030.
The main species driving this growth are shrimp and tilapia which will see between 90-100 percent growth in production in the next 20 years, Anderson said. Mollusks, carp, pangasius and salmon production will also grow 40-90 percent over the same period.
“Freshwater is where a lot of the action will take place,” said Anderson, with India, Latin America, the Caribbean and South East Asia, becoming the biggest growth areas.
However, he added nothing is certain, as can be seen by the impact of EMS in the shrimp industry over the past couple of years.
After years of steady growth in the shrimp industry the impact of the EMS outbreak means in 2013, growth in this sector is 23 percent below expectations.
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Tuesday, June 17 9.27 a.m. C.E.T
Who are the winners?
The winning species, according to Nesse, which will each see more than 1 million harvested tons by 2020, include Atlantic salmon, white shrimp, tilapia, various Amazon species and Asian species.
In total aquaculture production is expected to double from 10 million tons in 2010 to 20 million tons in 2020, and it is these five species will drive this, Nesse said.
Nutreco predicts that production of Atlantic salmon will grow from 1.6 million tons in 2010 to 2.8 million tons in 2020 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6 percent.
Harvested white shrimp volumes will grow from 4.1 million to 6.5 million over the same period, with a CAGR rate of 5 percent.
In third place, tilapia with a CAGR rate of 9 percent, is expected to grow from 3.4 million tons to 8 million tons by 2020. Other species Nesse said to watch out for include tamaquin, snakehead and Asian bass.
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Tuesday, June 17 9.15 a.m. C.E.T
Aquaculture hits a milestone this year
The aquaculture industry has reached a milestone with per capita consumption of farmed fish overtaking that of capture fisheries for the first time.
According to Knut Nesse, CEO of Nutreco, consumption of farmed fish is to reach 10.3 kilos per capita this year, passing consumption of wild caught fish which will be 9.7 kilo per capita.
Kicking off the AquaVision 2014 conference, Nesse said the industry had a duty to double food production by 2020 but at the same time halve the pressure on the planet.
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Tuesday, June 17 8.30 a.m. C.E.T
The blue revolution beyond tomorrow
With the global population expected to reach nine billion by 2050, many questions about food security remain unanswered.
To meet the future demand of seafood, the aquaculture industry needs a sustainable future growth plan and this is what AquaVision 2014 is promising to focus on at its 10th biennial event.
More than 400 stakeholders from 35 countries are expected to attend the event, with Sir Bob Geldof of the Live Aid charity headlining as the keynote speaker.
Also speaking will be Climate Strategy Professor Jorgen Randers from the Norwegian Business School, IMD Business School Professor Stephane Garelli, Innovation Professor David Robertson from Wharton School and James Anderson of The World Bank.
-- IntraFish Media
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