How much credit can we give the explosion of sushi to the awareness and expansion of seafood consumption across the west?
I'd say a lot, and I don't think the food trend is anywhere near finished. But where, exactly, is it taking the seafood industry as the Westernization of sushi takes the traditional delicacy in some decidedly non-traditional directions (gross and grosser)?
Sushi is mainstream, so much so that calling it a "trend" is an anachromism. Bloomberg, in answer to The Economist's 'Big Mac Index,' a bellwether of consumer food prices, launched 'Sushinomics,' which it believes reflects Millennial eating habits, and as the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers fade away (gulp), it's Millennials we need to keep our eye on.
It's not easy to find data on sushi consumption across the Europe and North America, but Nielsen put the value of the US retail sushi sector at $704.6 million in 2014, and research group Statistic Brain put the sector's value at $2.25 billion overall in the United States, with just under 4,000 locations. In total, outside of Japan, the group estimates some 16,000 sushi restaurants are established. Japan, naturally, remains king at 45,000 locations.
While the West may not reach that 45,000 number anytime soon, it's certain that there is no sign of saturation in sight.
But to really push the trend forward will take a couple key elements.
For one, somebody will have to emerge as the sushi champion. Currently, there are a few small regional chains, but beyond the franchising of the in-store retail units, nobody has yet rolled out a nationwide operation.
Given that sushi requires a certain level of trust, a strong brand could make a difference in building up the consumer confidence needed to goose the trend even more.
In the United Kingdom, Yo! Sushi has quite obviously led the way, and is ubiquitous across the country. The chain is in the States, in malls in the New York-New Jersey area and in Florida, for a total of five locations, but so far it's been tentative.
Wasabi, a roughly 50-unit sushi and bento chain in the United Kingdom has made the move into New York City with three locations.
Another popular sushi-focused chain, Itsu, which has around 60 locations in the UK market, actually tried entering the United States about a decade ago, but flopped. The company said in 2014 it was planning on trying again with New York City and California locations, but so far that hasn't come to pass.
The next trick to turning sushi consumption into seafood consumption around the western world will require more imagination, and maybe less mayonnaise.
You're not going to find much variety on the menus of the chains above -- the staples of salmon, tuna, shrimp and surimi anchor almost all the roll-centric menus.
That, ultimately, is what Western palates are after, said Trevor Corson, author of "The Story of Sushi: An Unlikely Saga of Raw Fish and Rice," and that may be the rub.
If you catch a sushi chef off guard, Corson told me, they'll tell you they are essentially making very sweet rice, with non-offensive flavors that will ultimately be masked by the sauces added.
"So it's an open question to me," Corson said. "It's hard to tell if these people actually like fish, or if they like soy, wasabi and mayonnaise."
How chains step into the sushi void will dictate a lot of the future of the industry. Bland, mid-grade and high-volume may be what a chain needs from a logistics point of view, but that can be a vicious cycle, he said.
Corson said another tack may be to emulate traditional sushi's variety and embrace more obscure species, which could have the effect of re-igniting sushi's exclusive image as well as offering consumers a springboard for more seafood consumption.
"I think the sushi world is wide open for somebody to do that well," he said.
Otherwise, could it be in an ironic twist that the sushi explosion leads consumers away from more "fishy" fish?
Step into any conveyor belt sushi restaurant in particular, and those in the know will notice some subtle economics at work -- there are a hell of a lot more sauce-drizzled, surimi-filled, rice-heavy items matriculating. Sure, that may be what consumers are demanding, but it's also, as we know, a much higher margin item.
Time will tell if sushi leads seafood to the promised land, but one thing's for certain -- the landscape's still wide open for the right company to make its mark.
Feedback? Contact:drew.cherry@intrafish.com
Follow me on Twitter:@drewcherry
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