With 5 percent annual growth and just 1.6 kilos of consumption per capita, the potential for farmed salmon consumption in the US market is massive.
Assuming recent farmed salmon consumption growth continues at its 5 percent annual growth rate, Kontali CEO Ragnar Nystoyl said, US consumers could be eating 1 million metric tons by 2030.
Kontali's figures show the assumption is not that far-fetched. That 1.6 kilo figure is up over 55 percent from 15 years ago, but still trails European per capita consumption, which was at 2.18 kilos per capita in 2019.
Europe's growth has slowed in the past five years, but continues to be the largest destination for farmed salmon globally.
The pool of other countries consuming farmed salmon has continued its steady growth as well. But while much has been made of China's eventual farmed salmon consumption, the volume growth will take time, and may, in fact, be supplied primarily by domestic sources at some point.
Japan and Russia, also once highly promising markets, have either through changing tastes or trade issues, seen their per capita consumption slide to 0.62 and 0.47 kilos.
So it's North America that suddenly is in the spotlight, Nystoyl said.
Kontali estimates Canadians and Americans will consume around 600,000 metric tons by 2020, will gobble up another 200,000 metric tons by 2025, and pass the 1 million metric point in just 10 years.
Though the numbers are big, the trends are solid, Nystol said. "The five percent number is fully achievable."