Marine Ingredients Organization (IFFO) Market Research Director Enrico Bachis is hopeful that 2021 will be a better year for the world's fishmeal and oil industry.

This year started with the highly premature abandonment of the 2019 second fishing season in January in Peru's north central waters due to the high presence of juvenile fish. The global COVID-19 crisis then followed, delaying the first season this year.

"We still are dependent on supply unfortunately but the little we can say seems to at least promise a balanced year in 2021," Bachis said.

For the remainder of this year all eyes are again focused on the world's largest and main swing producer. "It always depends on Peru. No difference this year or next year," Bachis said. "But based on what we know now it looks like there won’t be scarcity of marine ingredients in 2020 or 2021."

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Fishmeal and fish oil producers are awaiting news of quotas for Peru's second season. Marine scientists are not expected to arrive back from an expedition to assess stock levels in north central waters until Nov. 13.

Globally, IFFO expects fishmeal supply this year to come in at around 4.9 million tons, and 5.1 million tons in 2021. But estimates for demand next year will not be available until at least the middle of 2021, when production levels in animal farming become clearer.

In 2019, Peru remained by far the largest fishmeal and fish oil production and exporting country, while China (fishmeal) and Norway (fish oil) were the biggest importers. This is not expected to change in 2020.

Growth continues in Asia, especially China. Asia accounts for 85 percent of aquaculture and crustaceans fed around the world, the biggest consumers of fishmeal.

Surprising pig sector demand

Most surprisingly for IFFO researchers is the fact that global fishmeal consumption more than held up between 2018 and 2019 despite the African Swine fever epidemic, which badly hit pig farming in China and Vietnam.

In China, pig feed producers raised inclusion rates for fishmeal in feed in order to increase resilience among herds, lifting consumption by between 50,000 metric tons and 100,000 metric tons.

"Seeing that the pig cycle is actually consuming more fishmeal in China is a good thing," Bacchis said.

The recovery of the pig feed sector following the African Swine Fever epidemic is likely to reshape the demand landscape among protein producers this year.

"We are expecting a big increase in the pig feed share especially in Asia -- especially in China -- in 2020," Bachis said.

There has also been a rise in usage in the poultry and pet food sectors.

Aquaculture accounted for almost 78 percent of fishmeal consumption in 2019, slightly down from the previous 12 months, with pork (14 percent) well ahead of poultry (4.5 percent).

The shrimp farming and other crustaceans sector (24.9 percent) is the biggest consumer of fishmeal, followed by other freshwater fish (21.6 percent), marine fish (15.9 percent), salmonids (15.2 percent) and tilapia (9 percent).

Cyprinids, including carp widely farmed in China, account for (8.7 percent), according to IFFO data.

Processing

After a difficult year, will the fishmeal industry find balance in 2021?