Never fear, that's what we're here for. Study up on these 10 trends that will make you seem like the best-informed exec on the showfloor.
1) Shrimp supply. If you want diversity, ask a shrimp executive where they think the market is headed in 2014. Some will tell you Thailand's recovery is already underway, some say it won't be until the end of the year. What's certain is that supply won't be down to the levels of last year, but there is still no silver bullet for resolving the crisis
2) Salmon prices. Supply will be up in 2014 -- but no enough to offset demand. Most analysts don't expect the same meteoric rise in prices we witnessed over the past year, and we've seen some stability settle in over the first part of this year. Still, no cheap salmon. Deal with it.
3) Ukraine. It's not just a global crisis, of course. Events there are already reverberating, with roe and pelagic importers in particular feeling the pinch of backlog, and the threat of Russia facing bans looming large.
4) Pescanova. It's more than a year since the spectacular flame out of the Spanish multinational, and the saga will continue for years to come (click here to see our in-depth coverage). In the short-term, primary shareholders Damm and Luxempart need to get banks and other creditors to accept their plan for keeping the enterprise afloat. The company's jewel-in-the-crown Chilean operations -- Acuinova and Novanam -- are still awaiting sale, pending the situation with the rescue plan.
5) Marine Harvest. How could you not talk about this company's historic past year? Its ambitious attempted acquisition of Cermaq. It's announcement it would ramp up its feed production, either organically or through acquisition. Its listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). At the North Atlantic Seafood Forum last week, it made some of its boldest predictions yet about its plans. On Friday, it announced it would launch what it called the first-ever brand for a value-added fresh salmon product. What next?
6) Alaska pollock. A lot fewer questions hang in the air over the Alaska pollock sector than last year, when it was unclear if the Russian pollock fishery would gain Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) status, and European buyers held firm on committing to product. It was ugly. I can tell you from a very barbed exchange last week at the North Atlantic Seafood Forum that European buyers are sick of hearing excuses for price increases, and both sides are tired of hearing how low German fish finger prices are. Whitefish prices in general will be a topic under discussion: what are world markets going to do with all this cod?
7) The mackerel war. A critical topic if you are European, but one you need to understand no matter where your home lies. After months of increasingly contentious disagreement, Norway, the European Union and the Faroe Islands agreed on a split percentage for the Northeast Atlantic mackerel stock. A global market hung in the balance; if some of the threats made would have come to pass (Denmark wanted all Norway's seafood banned from the EU, for example), it would have been chaos. Iceland and Greenland, pointedly, did not sign onto the agreement, and tension remains high there, but the agreement between the three largest harvesting nations will ensure stock health and seafood world peace, for now.
8) Manpower. On the personnel side, where to start? AquaChile CEO Alfonso Marquez de la Plata was shuffled out inexplicably last week, Young's top exec Leendert den Hollander left for who knows where, Morpol CEO Adam Basalaj was shown the door earlier in the year. Cermaq CFO (and long-time interim CEO) Tore Valderhaug stepped down last month. Where they will resuface, who can say. Sometimes they'll resurface in places you were not expecting. For example, a pair of former Icicle Seafoods CEOs -- Don Giles and Dennis Guhlke -- teamed up with Pablo Baraona to acquire Icicles Seafoods' 50 percent stake in Salmones Aysen in Chile.
9) Who's buying? The Icicle news leads nicely into the consolidation question. Is Icicle finally, officially on the block after nearly seven years ownership under private equity group Paine and Parnters? Will Marine Harvest indeed pick up Grieg Seafood and SalMar? When they do, will they make another run at Mainstream? Or perhaps one of the feed groups such as Biomar? Even more interesting is the speculation on the mid-sized companies. Few saw the Marubeni-Eastern Fish deal coming, and with an incredibly fragmented US sector and High Liner, Clearwater and others very vocally on the hunt, we'll likely hear plenty of rumors about who is next.
10) Yihe and Marlees. Both companies were invoved in unbelievable legal battles that led to wild accusations, and left both companies' reputations sullied to say the least. Yihe's legal troubles are over (for now), but Marlees' drag on. Yihe will indeed be exhibiting this year, but what kind of awkward discussions they will have with buyers is anybody's guess.
Bonus topic: Seafood International Digital. Forgive my shameless plug, but we're pretty damn excited about the new Seafood International Digital website we launched last week, and we certainly think you should be adding it to your list of talking points. Make sure and register so you can have full access to the site.
Enjoy the show, and keep an eye on our annual Boston blog throughout the day as we break news real-time from the floor.
Comments? Contact drew.cherry@intrafish.com
Twitter: @drewcherry
