Earlier this year, Eide said he made a prediction to the stock market that growth in Chile would be between zero percent and 8 percent, in contrast to Kontali Analyse’s initial 20 percent growth forecast.

“Now, I believe it will be closer to zero,” Eide said, meaning there there will less salmon available.

Eide’s previous forecast was based on the presence of salmon rickettsial syndrome (SRS) and sea lice. A suspected ISA outbreak can be added to that.

Chileans may risk pulling more fish out of the water, but it’s important to remember there were much fewer smolts put to sea than last year, Eide said, comparing the first five months with the same period in 2006.

There should be no reason to hold back harvesting in Norway because Norwegian and Chilean salmon go to different markets, he said.

Without elaborating, Eide said “no” when asked whether ISA would be the worst possible scenario for Chile.

Eide says his company is the first to talk openly about the ISA problem in Chile and what it might mean for future production growth, but says it’s too early to say whether the suspected outbreak will deal a fatal blow to the Chilean salmon sector.

“Several companies now report what they fear is ISA and I believe even more will follow,” Eide said, basing his comments on past experience from Norway.

Close to half the Chilean production is farmed around Chiloe island, where the outbreaks are suspected to have occurred.

Despite ISA being found in Norway 10 years ago, Eide said production has grown 5 percent to 10 percent on average per year, with 20 percent growth expected in 2007.

ISA is not a problem when the coast is split into zones, and because limits are placed on how much fish are allowed on a single site. Strict rules governing the distance between sites are enforced, Eide said.

To reduce the risk of ISA, companies must spread production over wider areas, and companies and authorities must work together, and be open in their reporting, he said.

Salmon market could see shakeup from ISA