Thursday, Jan. 21, 11am EST

Make it craveable

How do you improve the craveability of seafood?

First, be consistent. A consistent experience is critical but it can be hard in the restaurant industry, Warren Solochek of the NPD Group told GSMC attendees

Secondly, leverage fresh. Fresh equates to healthy, he said. Fresh can be presented in many different ways.

You should also try some new twists on traditional seafood preparations. Start with something consumers are familiar with and switch it up a bit.

Finally, steal from the strength of sushi. It is tasty and uniqe. Take the things that drive sushi demand -- lots of flavors, preparations, etc, and try to apply them to other seafood items," said Solochek.

--John Fiorillo

------------------------------------

Thursday, Jan. 21, 10:30am EST

Who do you trust?

Who does the seafood customer trust when they go to the grocery store? They trust the person behind the seafood case, said a major retailer speaking at the GMSC.

From a retail standpoint, he said, the biggest challenge is being able to continue to train and maintain staff.

Many leading retailers have ongoing staff training programs, but it continues to be a battle to maintain the support of management for these programs.

--John Fiorillo

------------------------------------

Thursday, Jan. 21, 10:19am EST

Seafood by drone? It's coming

Online shopping isn't a concept on the horizon--it's here. What will that mean for seafood?

"I think online shopping is definitely going to create obstacle, especially for seafood, and hopefully those obstacles will spur innovation," one major retail buyer said.

Year-on-year sales at her company online are up sharply, so the space is open.

But "unless you're Amazon in New York City and delivering through a drone, how do you do online shopping?"

Millennials will be shopping more and more over the web, particularly for fresh food.

"If you're under 30, I don't know if you know what the inside of a store looks like," the buyer said.

--Drew Cherry

------------------------------------

Thursday, Jan. 21, 10:15am EST

Dig down into your supply chain

Human trafficking is not a problem limited to shrimp, and suppliers need to do a better job knowing exactly who they are getting product from -- where is the feed coming from if it is a farmed species, if wild, trace the catch back to the vessel and fishermen, said a major retailer.

Improved transparency along the entire supply chain. "We need every single supplier to know exactly where their product comes form. You need to go down into your supply chain and know who and what is involved.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------------------

Thursday, Jan. 21, 10:06am EST

Innovation is about more than products

Innovation isn't just about the fish itself, its about everything that goes around it, a major retailer told attendees.

"We are looking to our suppliers to help us with our packaging and carbon footprint," the retailer said. "We need more sustainable ways to ship products."

Don't think of innovation as simply product specific, said a major US retailer on the panel. "What kind of verification services can you provide that go beyond traceability to allow us to be confident that what we say we're doing overseas is what we're really doing?"

It's going to become more and more important about how suppliers package product and how they get it to buyers, agreed the panelists.

-- John Fiorillo

<p> </p>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, Jan. 21, 10:05am EST

Innovation = problem solving

One major retailer on the buyers' panel at GSMC said innovation is actually a simple concept: solve problems.

"No. 1, solve my problems, and No. 2, make me look like I know what I'm doing," the executive said.

That means bringing retailers what they want and need.

"Don't develop in a vacuum," he said.

Even existing categories can be brought new life with the right concepts.

One major foodservice buyer on the panel noted an example of innovation in the beer battered fish category that was a big success for her company.

"We teamed up with Trident and reinvented a core component of the category," she said.

By pairing Alaskan fish and an Alaskan IPA, the company offered an entirely new product that told a story.

"That was one SKU, and we sold one million pounds," she said. "That's what you can do when you have a collaborative approach to innovation."

--Drew Cherry

-----------------

Thursday, Jan. 21, 10am EST

Where does innovation come from?

Innovation comes in all shapes and sizes in the seafood industry, and the closing panel at the GSMC brought buyers from major retail and foodservice companies together to outline what some of those are.

Chuck Anderson, director of procurement and saales at Sustainable Sea Products International, gave attendees an overview of what the panel believes constitutes innovation: exact weight portions, reliable quality, simple meal solutions and, of course, sustainability are among the categories where the industry can look to push things forward.

Rather than complaining about the price pressure from buyers, bring them new ideas that can help them grow their sales.

"If you work with your customer in the innovation process, they'll be more willing to pay for it," Anderson said.

--Drew Cherry

-----------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:50pm EST

A new shellfish star?

Is soft shell Mangro crab (Scylla serrata) a new rising shellfish star? Panelists at the shellfish discussion suggest it could be.

The crab is captured in mangroves by small producers in Myanmar, where the largest production happens. New production is also coming from Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand.

The product is fattened after capture to produce a soft shell product that is processed the same as blue swimming crab. As production increases, prices are expected to become more affordable.

Suppliers are reaching out to foodservice buyers now, and the product is expected to make a splash at the upcoming Boston seafood show.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------------------

<p> </p>
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:40pm EST

Clams seek MSC label

Producers of surf and quahog clams, the workhorses of the clam sector and the basis for clam strips and chowders, are seeking Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification.

A coalition, led by Atlantic Capes Fisheries, Inc., Bumble Bee, LaMonica Fine Foods, Sea Watch International and Surfside Products, initiated the certification process late in 2015.

Meanwhile the industry is sponsoring a series of research projects with government and academia to increase yields and monitor habitat impacts in the fisheries.

-- John Fiorillo

-------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:33pm EST

Colombia steps in

The fresh tilapia category "hasn't lost a whole lot and hasn't gained a whole lot either," said one seafood expert.

US tilapia imports have leveled. It has dropped since 2013 but should bounce back slightly this year. Weekly fresh tilapia imports peaked in February 2007 and every ensuing February, it has yet to meet that level.

"There are issues related to price and currency," he said, adding that tilapia "is competing with shrimp and salmon and that's part of the reason for this decline."

Ecuador was the second largest US supplier of fresh tilapia in 2011 and as of last year, it is the fourth largest. Stepping in to pick up the void is Colombia. Tilapia imports from Colombia has grown 32 percent since 2011.

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:33pm EST

Bass finding new fans

European sea bass -- farmed primarily in Turkey -- is gaining ground in the US market, in part because of its stable supply, and the flexibility for presentations of it.

In addition, one import executive said, many high-end US chefs actually hail from Europe, and are familiar with a lot of preparation methods.

The fish also fits well with the "whole fish trend" at upscale restaurants.

The executive noted that his imports of European sea bass were up 26 percent in 2015 over the year prior.

--Drew Cherry

-----------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:30pm EST

Oyster expansion continues

The live half-shell oyster market continues to expand. A desire by chefs to menu local food is helping fuel these growing oyster sales.

Farms are expanding in Maryland and other regions. The increased production could ultimately moderate prices, which have been driven up by surging demand, but it is unknown when such moderation might occurr.

-- John Fiorillo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 4:15pm EST

Yes, there are social issues in whitefish

Shrimp is not alone in battling Asian labor issues.

The Southeast Asian surimi sector -- which has for years been booming, especially in Thailand -- is also under scrutiny, and western buyers are backing off a bit, according to one US-based executive at the GSMC whitefish panel.

"No questions that is going to have some effect," the exec said, particularly on the European market, which has been integrating more tropical surimi into its mix.

In addition to the social problems, the supply of tropical fish for surimi has been incredibly volatile, another strike that has western buyers concerned.

--Drew Cherry

----------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:58pm EST

Haddock supply takes a hit

The haddock world supply of single frozen fillets and blocks has dropped since 2012 from 184,000 metric tons in 2012 to 135,000 metric tons in 2014. However, despite the decline, the percentage of that total that goes to the United States remains at about 18 percent.

World H&G haddock supply in whole fish weight was 185,000 metric tons in 2011 but plummeted to an estimated 89,000 metric tons in 2014. Of this total, the amount heading into China for reprocessing has grown.

In 2011, China took in 49 percent of the world supply of H&G haddock and the estimated percentage going into China for 2014 is 66 percent.

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:46pm EST

Higher US pollock quota? Nah

The idea of raising the 2 million metric ton cap in the US Bering Sea has been floated from time to time, and with the recent strength of the species, the voices are raising once again.

While the biomass could theoretically handle it, one US executive on the whitefish panel told the audince, "I think it's a very difficult task."

The ecosystem-based management regime has been extremely effective, and if it ain't broke, it's unlikely regulators -- or industry -- will push for it anytime soon.

--Drew Cherry

------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:39pm EST

Get used to your US pollock supplier

With caps on quota ownership, it's hard to imagine a lot more consolidation in the US supply sector.

"If you count it up, there's only five companies offshore, one parent company in the mothership sector, and four companies in the Bering Sea onshore," one US executive said. "There could be some, but we're fairly mature."

The exec noted that there has been some in the Gulf of Alaska, but beyond that -- not much.

--Drew Cherry

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:26pm EST

Chinese tilapia harvest flatlining

Tilapia whole fish weight harvest "has seen straight line growth since 2008 up to 5.5 million metric tons" estimated for 2016," according to a seafood exec. However looking at the Chinese tilapia whole fish weight harvest, it grew significantly from 2008 to 2011 but has since leveled out with little to no growth.

As for tilapia pricing, it's pretty much all over the board with seasonal fluctuations," he said. "The last two years, you see a noted downward trend."

Also the pricing ladder for tilapia shows high prices in March and lows in September with an extreme case of that in 2015.

One Chinese seafood expert said despite relatively stable production, prices were down last June, which caused farmers to put less fish in the water.

"You'll see less material being grown and that will impact price," he said, adding that the United States is still the "place where the product goes. It [offers] the best price for the Chinese to sell product."

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:25pm EST

No relief for scallops

Overall availability of sea scallops was lower last year, given poor harvests in critical production areas.

Peru's harvest has been significantly impacted by El Nino, while Japan's and China's harvests were down by as much as 50 percent. The US fishery catch was up from 2014, though still down 40 percent from its 2011 high.

The US harvest is trending toward smaller sizes, with more 20-30s entering the market and fewer 10-20s.

Prices are not expected to go lower this year, given the constrained supply, said panelists.

In 2017, the US expects increased supplies, but it is hard to predict when Peru or other supplies will increase.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:11pm EST

China's cod processing headed for change

The twice-frozen cod market will face some major shakeups this year, executives on the GSMC Whitefish Breakout panel said.

Chinese companies are struggling with new banking regulations, a lack of credit, overcapacity and worker shortage.

While the long-term picture isn't as bleak, consolidation and bankruptcies will continue.

That has put tremendous uncertainty over which companies can offer reliable supplizes. Haddock and pollock are facing the same problems, but more on that later.

--Drew Cherry

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:05pm EST

Switching from Europe to China

The pangasius production outlook is "not as doom and gloom" as it seems, said a Vietnamese seafood expert.

Vietnamese farmers have slowed on producing "quality raw material that has been grown and farmed according to European standards" due to dropping demand there, but "the places where demand is growing are places where" demand for high product quality is less strict, such as China.

He does not anticipate a drop in pangasius production this year.

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 3:01pm EST

Cheaper feed, cheaper production

The pangasius price line over the last few years has been a downward trend

One Vietnamese seafood expert said a major factor he's seen in Vietnam in recent years is that farmers "have been able to lower feed cost."

"Lowered costs of production have put packers against each other ."

He added the Vietnamese dong went through a devaluation in August.

"Despite emerging market growth, Europe's continually been down for the last three years. It's been 10 - 20 percent decrease to most European countries for the last three years."

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2:56pm EST

Pangasius harvests keep dropping

The estimated pangasius whole fish weight harvest worldwide in 2106 is 1.5 million metric tons, which is down from nearly 1.7 million metric tons in 2013.

"After straightline growth to 2012, it's been straightline drop since then," said a US seafood exec. Separating out just Vietnamese harvest, the trend is the same.

However, the portion of Vietnamese pangasius that enters the United States has remained stable since 2011. Of the total farmed pangasius output last year through October, 26 percent has gone to the US market.

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan 20, 2:55pm EST

Will the good times for lobster continue?

Last year was a record production year for US/Canada lobster to over 350 million pounds.

China continues to be a growing market for the shellfish, although purchases slowed slightly recently as the Chinese economy has slowed. The longterm impact of the slowdown is unknown.

Online sales of lobster in China is one of the most robust sales channels. Outside of mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and other Southeast Asia nations have boosted their demand for lobster.

European demand is soft, especially in southern Europe, while US sales have expanded, especially of processed lobster.

But rising prices are concerning and could slow the strong sales trends of the past several years.

-- John Fiorillo

-----------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan 20, 2:40pm EST

Shellfish doing well

Volume sales and dollar value of most shellfish items advanced in 2015.

In the overall seafood category, shellfish volumes and dollar sales improved over finfish. Eighty-six percent of shellfish category dollars are shrimp. Excluding shrimp, crab and lobster had sales increases while scallops declined.

-- John Fiorillo

-----------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan 20, 2pm EST

A quiet 2016 for crab meat?

Buyers can expect supply and demand of blue swimming crab meat to balance out in 2016 and prices to hold within single digit percentage variance from 2015 levels, according to a presentation at the shrimp panel.

The crab meat market collapsed in mid-year last year, in part because of a large supply surge of IUU crab from Indonesia. This coincided with the sudden strengthening of the dollar against the Indonesian rupee by 12% within in 9 weeks.

No further impact from dollar fluctuation is expected, as seen in 2015, according to shellfish panelists.

-- John Fiorillo

-------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan 20, 1pm EST

Europe can't get enough

The European and the US absorbed salmon supply growth over the past two years -- an unexpected development given the Russian ban and the huge volumes it released onto the world markets.

Thankfully for Norwegian salmon, Europe picked up the slack.

Egil Ove Sundheim with the Norwegian Seafood Council said that seven to eight years ago, Norway thought the EU market may have been fully saturated.

Over that same period, he noted, NSC spent some $205 million marketing to consumers.

There have been some big changes in the European retail sector that have helped jump start growth.

"We see there is a change in the distribution of fresh salmon, particularly in the northern part of Europe," Sundheim said.

Aldi and Lidl's move toward fresh salmon, for example, have had a tremendous impact.

"That's a key driving factor," he said.

--Drew Cherry

--------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:58am EST

Good stories to tell

Several speakers on the salmon panel said the best way to boost salmon consumption in the United States was through good marketing.

"We need to keep pushing all positive campaigns," said one seafood exec. She added, "It's not this country, or that country, we just need to try to come together as a whole, as a group."

One Chilean exec agreed saying "let's not focus on where it's coming from, but push positive messages, push the salmon category in general."

"Salmon is a very good option, healthy, tasty, easy to cook," he said. "I think for many years our industry has been focused on production and managing crisis. I hope we can put together some good [marketing] efforts. I think we have very good stories to tell."

A US salmon processor mentioned data on eating habits of millenials.

"They like it wild, sustainable, natural," he said, adding they should target fresh salmon and different product forms in the US market, particularly "value added on the wild salmon side."

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 12:10am EST

Sword has lost its luster

US imports of swordfish have stabalized since 2002, when the market began to slide from 35 million pounds to around the 20 million pounds of imports today. The import market remains steady at this rate, but panelists are still troubled by the lack of consumer demand resulting from past chef boycotts of the fish and lingering concerns over mercury.

Mike Holley of US Foods said the fish is essentially and underutilized species in foodservice these days. "We need to educate."

Swordfish, once a seafood staple on steakhouse menus, has been replaced by Chilean sea bass, Holley added.

Orca Bay's Mike Walsh said his company is importing less swordfish these days, in part because retailers such as Costco won't carry the fish.  

-- John Fiorillo

--------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:53am EST

Got a go-to salmon recipe?

Compared to other countries, salmon consumption is low in the United States.

"There are a lot of misconceptions about salmon. We have to get our story out there. that's a critical thing," said Egil Ove Sundheim with the Norwegian Seafood Council. He added that a lot of seafood in the United States is consumed at the restaurant level.

However, "when it comes to retail, the versatility of salmon is tremendous. The marketplace is saturated with ideas the consumer can use at home, but how many families have a go-to salmon recipe?

"I think we need to make sure we have consumers who have one go-to recipe. I think it would be a tremendous, important step."

-- Kim Tran

----------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:50am EST

A little price relief for sockeye?

While a huge sockeye salmon run in Alaska's Bristol Bay is a good thing -- sustainability is never a negative -- for the industry the glut of supply means that, naturally, prices are going to be declining.

Bristol Bay salmon the second-largest sockeye harvest on record in 2015, beat only by the 2013 season.

With just three weeks to process the fish due to the concentrated run, product has to be pushed into forms that can move salmon through quickly. That tends to mean canned.

Prices for fresh sockeye have declined since late 2013, as have frozen H&G and canned. Only fresh H&G prices have risen, and that has been only since late 2014.

One executive with a US processor on the salmon panel said that based on the lower 2016 sockeye forecast (compared with last year), he expects "some price lift."

--Drew Cherry

------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:48am EST

Catch share headaches

The impact of catch shares remains the primary issue for grouper and red snapper US production. Prices have risen significantly in the US market in a manner similar to how halibut prices have soared since the catch share program was initiated in that fishery a decade ago.

In addition the concern over fraud for these species, highlighted by ongoing consumer media reports on seafood fraud, is hurting sales at foodservice, said Mike Holley, seafood procurement manager at US Foods. His company is now requiring DNA testing for the fish.

-- John Fiorillo

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:45am EST

The truth's in the label

About 84 percent of consumers have changed their dining habits in past few years

"They want healthier choices," which is a good thing for the seafood, said an exec with major US foodservice chain. "They're getting more sophisticated, complex and what they associate with quality, they associate with many different things: where it's from, what ingredients are added, how it's made."

He added that consumers seem to care the most about the source of seafood.

"They want to understand the production side and the animal welfare side of it," he said. "They want the transparency in the label and social media is gravitating toward this."

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:20am EST

El Nino causing damage

A very strong El Niño is wreaking havoc with the Central and South American mahi fishery. Water temperatures are keeping fish far and hard to catch.

Central American Mahi producing countries dependent on small, artisanal fleets are experiencing dismal production seasons.

Ecuador and Peru, whose fleets consists of larger, more autonomous vessels, are harvesting at 40-50% capacity.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:14am EST

Canada salmon booms over good planning

Although Canadian Atlantic salmon supply is not as large as Norway and Chile, it saw a 30 percent increase over the previous year," said a seafood exec.

She added, "certification in the United States plays a very big role."

The Canadian salmon sector focused on certifications, such as 4-star ones, and "the positive messaging by Canadians in the US retail worked."

"They did a good job in the planning stages so it wasn't a big surprise," she said.

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:10am EST

Norway losing out on Russia

"There seems to be a recovery of volumes into Russia," however, it's still not back to where it was, said Egil Ove Sundheim with

Norwegian Seafood Council, referencing a time when there was "double digit growth" in this market.

He added that frozen is taking over the seafood demand in Russia and "the fresh category has amost vanished in Russian retail."

For Norway, "we are losing a growing market for salmon with the situation we have. We also have a weaker purchasing power in russia which also impacts us," said Sundheim.

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:05am EST

Rejected

FDA refusals of mahi imports are up, as the the agency is stepping up its inspections, said Santiago Alverez director/CEO, Alfa International Seafood.

We expect the FDA's focus to be significant this year, he said. The refusals are focused on decomposition.  The subjective nature of decomposition tests is a concern, commented some attendees.

FDA refusals have risen from 54 in 2013 to 115 in 2015. "Packers are afraid," said Alvarez.

Guy Pizzuti, seafood category manager for Publix Super Markets, urged the audience to pay close attention to the issue because it could have impacts on consumer demand and bring uncertainty to retailers looking to sell the fish.

-- John Fiorillo

-------------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:05am EST

Think quick Norway

In August 2014, the Russian import ban closed one of Norway’s largest markets and the ban continued into 2015.

"We had to find other channels for our products," said Egil Ove Sundheim with Norwegian Seafood Council. Norway has over 100 markets for its salmon, but "there are not many other markets that are growing."

He added there were challenges when Norway had to "replace that salmon that should have gone to Russia on very short notice. Both the industry itself and the government are joining forces to find a solution to the problem at hand.

Sundheim added, It's something that can "turn your business upside down in an instant."

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20 10:57am EST

Farmed salmon: why so slow?

About 75 percent of the world salmon supply is farmed and that figure has more than double since 2000.

"Wild salmon has been more or less stagnant" and while farmed salmon has seen growth, it has slowed immensely.

"There's no doubt that we have seen good growth, but you've seen less growth in the last 10 years compared to the last 30 years."

The world supply of farmed Atlantic salmon grew by only 3 percent in 2015, year-on-year.

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 10:50am EST

Mahi stable

<p> </p>
 

 

Global mahi production has remains stable.

-- John Fiorillo

 

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 10:30am EST

Popularity contest

While the group of species including mahi, tuna, swordfish, snapper and grouper, represent a small part of the overall seafood market, the  group represents some of the more popular species.

Tunas are the largest species produced from this group. Tuna represents 86 percent of the group's production, 5.42 percent of all finfish production, and 3.56 percent of all seafood.

El Nino conditions are playing a big factor in the supply of these warmwater species right now.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20 10:05am EST

Employment and wages

<p> </p>

Employment creates demand and real wages are just starting to improve.

The rate of change of three factors need to line up long term: annualized payroll change, annualize labor force change and annualized population change.

"At some point it has to rationalize," which can be done if you "change how much you pay people," said a CEO of a leading west coast seafood supplier.

However, if you can't increase sales, your profits reduce when you increase wages.

"We can have employment growth decline or we can have higher wages and we're seeing higher wages," said the bank exec.

The CEO said he has dealt with minimum wage increase in the last 12 months and has found it hard to hire people over the last 12 months as well.

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 9:50am EST

Betting on aquaculture

"Corn prices are ultimately protein prices. We had a huge step up in the price of corn," said a bank exec.

As for the impact for the seafood industry, a CEO of a leading west coast seafood supplier said, "right now the feed on the aquaculture side is more expensive but that's going to change over time."

His company deals with both wild and farmed seafood and he sees long-term growth from the aquaculture side.

"The wild capture without supply growth," demand will obviously grow.

However, on the aquaculture side, you've got to feel good to be able to compete long term with" other proteins, said the CEO. "I'm going to bet more on a cold blooded animal that floats."

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 9:39am EST

The other proteins

"This is the only slide that makes me happy to be in the seafood industry right now," said the CEO of a leading west coast seafood supplier.

<p> </p>
 

 

Beef has made seafood look cheap recently for conscious shoppers.

-- Kim Tran

------------------------

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 9:19am EST

Strong USD getting stronger

The US economy performing better doesn't mean it's a good thing. "It just means we're performing better" than other countries, said a bank exec during the plenary session.

"It looks like the dollar is going to continue to strengthen," said the CEO of a leading west coast seafood supplier, adding that it's going to be a "significant" impact.

The bank exec explained, "we're the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile. If you want to put your money somewhere for investment, the US looks pretty good, by relative performance."

-- Kim Tran

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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 8:20am EST

Where are the NGOs?

The conference has an abundance of importers and other suppliers, which makes perfect sense given its focus on supply and sales issues.

But you won't find many NGOs in the crowd. The Marine Stewardship Council is here (MSC). It's not the first time for the MSC at the event, but it is the first time the group is attending as a member of the National Fisheries Institute (NFI).

This conference, with an attendee list of nearly 500, is now being referred to as the US version of Europe's Groundfish Forum because of its ability to attract top executives across the US seafood industry and beyond.

-- John Fiorillo

------------------------

Tuesday, Jan 19, 5:05pm EST

Mackerel looks for new markets

The story with mackerel is not much different that with herring. "Challenging" is probably the best word to describe it.

There's more at stake: mackerel production is higher at an estimated 3 million metric tons from 2014-2016.

But Russian and Nigerian markets both shook up the sector.

That trade flow shake up has forced producers to find new markets -- which has helped the industry get creative with their customer base.

The US market, for example, holds some big promise, particularly among Asian consumers.

Norwegian Seafood Council's (NSC) Egil Ove Sundheim said his group has been looking for ways to get into the market beyond the canned and prepared segment, which accounts for 56 percent of overall US imports.

By comparison, the smoked sector accounts for just 6 percent of imports.

One exec said he is seeing an increase of appetizer options in smoked fish, and sees good opportunity for the mackerel sector there.

"There are some opportunities, but its about getting the US consumer to try the product," Sundheim said. "Prepared the right way, they find themselves liking it."

--Drew Cherry

------------------------

Tuesday, Jan 19, 4:44pm EST

Herring hit by trade challenges

Herring production is well down from recent highs reached in 2009, but the resource in both the Atlantic and Pacific appear to be stabilizing at around 2 million metric tons.

Norwegian Seafood Council's (NSC) Egil Ove Sundheim showed attendees at the GSMC 2016 Pelagics Breakout session a breakdown of the key imoprters of herring worldwide, and among the biggest are countries that have not exactly had a stable economy: Russia, Ukraine and Nigeria.

Russia, of course, has continued its ban on Western seafood imports, and the Nigerian government maintains a variety of restrictions

Currency has been a challenge for the sector as well. Since most pelagic fish are traded in dollars, buyers have had to deal with higher prices, which has also impacted the markets and flow of goods.

--Drew Cherry

------------------------

Tuesday, Jan 19, 4:30pm EST

China hungry for larger shrimp

The Chinese have a big middle class that's growing every year and they like the larger shrimp sizes," said an executive with one Ecuadorian shrimp company at the GSMC's Shrimp Breakout panel. He added Chinese shrimp farms are producing shrimp sizes 8 to 10 grams and "they're not able to get big enough shrimp."

Ecuador is one country which stepped in to pick up this market share with its shrimp sizes 30-40 and 40-50.

"Ecuador ships 50 percent of its production to China," the executive said. "Exports right now are at a historic high."

An executive with one major Thai producer, agreed, saying "larger shrimp will be imported" into China.

Also, shrimp production has been flat in China, he said. 

Although "there are inland and low salinity areas that are being developed," it's offset by old production areas, which are facing challenges.

However, the demand is very much there as the shrimp price Chinese farmers "are offered is strong, so if you can grow it, you get a good price," the exec with the Thai group said.

--Kim Tran

------------------------

Tuesday, Jan 19, 4:30pm EST

Thai farmers adapting over other countries

"Of all the farming in Asia, the only group with farmers with a positive sentiment is Thailand," said an executive of one of the largest Thai seafood firms. "Thai farmers feel good about overcoming EHP and EMS."

"We came off the bottom this year," and the production target is 250,000 metric tons, but the executive said he's confident production will be closer to 290,000 to 300,000 metric tons.

"I think we're going to start off very well this year. The growth of shrimp is excellent --  I've never seen harvests of 50-60 gram shrimp" but so far he's seen several batches in that size range.

Also, "costs are getting much lower. The farmers have figured out what changes have happened in the world of shrimp farming and they've adapted to it. Other countries are still in the process of figuring it out."

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 4:12pm EST

Wrapping its tentacles around the globe

Global octopus production has been a steady resource for nearly a decade now with around 350,000 metric tons of harvest expected for 2015.

That steady supply creates some exciting opportunities for the product on the US market.

Just as in squid, China is far and away the largest producer of octopus, well above Morocco and Japan, the second and third suppliers.

US octopus imports continue to rise, with Spain exporting the majority of the product, followed by the Phillipines.

Overall, Spain, Japan and Italy are global leaders. One Spanish octopus exporter pointed out a fact: those countries account for three out of the four countries with the highest life expectancy. Coincidence?

--Drew Cherry

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 4:01pm EST

What we talk about when we talk about squid

The pelagic breakout panel started off hitting on the squid sector, which, in the US, in large part means "the calamari sector."

A new MenuTrends report shows calamari has a 26 percent menu penetration across US restaurants -- which is extremely high.

That said, overall volume is flat.

If you go out to a sports bar and order calamari, you haven't consumed much, said an executive with a US seafood importer.

"You can finish that by the end of the first quarter," he said.

Total squid consumption in the US is at .25 pounds per capita.

That 26 percent penetration, though, comes at traditional restaurants, mostly Italian and fine dining restaurants.

But that isn't where the growth is, according to Norwegian Seafood Council's Egil Ove Sundheim. The fast casual sector, where so much foodservice expansion is taking place, doesn't feature items such as squid, and only has 7.9 percent penetration in quick service restaurants, MenuTrends found.

"We're not present with our products in that segement where the next major consumer group is learning how to eat seafood," Sundheim said.

And though it is front of mind, calamari isn't the only way squid is sold. Asian restaurants such as Thai, Chinese and Japanese restaurants serve squid as an entree.

Worldwide, some 2.92 million metric tons of squid were landed in 2013, making up the majority of the estimated 4 million metric tons of global cephalopod production.

Squid production is estimated to have been up slightly in 2015, reaching highs not seen since 2007.

Squid prices have been on the decline in the past couple of years, but rising prices may be on the horizon.

The seafood executive leading the panel said there have been reports of major price increases on squid out of China -- the world's largest squid producer by far -- on tight supply and decreased landings.

--Drew Cherry

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 3:45pm EST

Out with one disease, in with another

Although there is still EMS and white spot diseases in the shrimp sector, EHP is a growing concern.

EHP is an organism and the problem with it is it forms a spore that is practically indestructible, said an executive with one major Thai company. It's hard to detect so it spreads quickly but also hard to disinfect.

"Since EHP came in strong, we don't see EMS mortality - slow growth but no pond failure," he said. "It's not obvious like EMS because the shrimp do not die." Its growth is slow, which pushes up production costs causing farmers to stock less.

"In China right now, they've had this problem for a year and a half; they could be growing a shrimp for 100-120 days and only get a 6 gram shrimp."

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 2:50pm EST

No big jump in shrimp coming

Don't expect a big jump in global shrimp production in 2016, according to the shrimp panel at this year's GMSC.

While shrimp production improved in the 2014 - 2015 period and lower prices helped spur greater demand, total global production is likely to stay flat in the coming year, according to panelists.

The global shrimp production story since 2012 has vacillated between lower production in 2012 and 2013, a recovery in 2014 and relative stability in 2015.

The new year is expected to continue this stability, but things could change if disease outbreaks escalate. Current disease hotspots include India, where white spot continues to present challenges; China, which is dealing with EHP; and Central America, where EMS remains an issue.

NFI's shrimp panel projections differ from a projected 7.7 percent production increase forecast late last year by the Global Aquaculture Association (GAA). This, according to the panel, is because production difficulties due to disease, weather and other factors grew more pronounced during the fourth quarter of 2015 and into the 2016.

-- John Fiorillo

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 2:20pm EST

Respect your elders

The United States is spending more on imported seafood than its making in exported seafood.

"For the first time in history, the average export price is less than half the average import price," according to a presentation by American Seafoods' Ron Rogness.

The 2013 import price was $3.28, which jumped to $3.64 in 2014. On the other hand, export price in 2013 was $1.68 and in 2014, it only increased by $0.01.

US seafood sales are more heavily dependent on the highest income group and in terms of age groups, those in the 45 to 54 age bracket spend the most on seafood. Seafood spending drops as consumers age until 75, when it jumps back up.

"Its not a demographic to be ignored," said Rogness. "There are 20 million people age 75+ and that's expected to increase more rapidly in the coming years."

Compared to other proteins, seafood spending after its peak drops more slowly than other proteins as consumers age.

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 2:15pm EST

Protein: prices on the rise

Seafood isn't the only protein facing inflation, and in fact, it may be facing far less inflation than others.

Since 2010, beef price inflation has been 57 percent, pork 36 percent, and broilers 36 percent according to Cattlefax's Duane Lenz.

That makes recent rises in salmon and cod prices seem not so bad.

-Drew Cherry

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Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2:10pm EST

Seafood gains ground among other proteins

Protein consumption has dropped since 2006 but the USDA projected an increase for in 2015 and 2016. Among the proteins, protein consumption was mainly hit by a drop in beef consumption, which was 63 pounds per capita in 2006 while 2014 saw a low of 51 pounds per capita. In comparison, seafood consumption only dropped by 2 pounds per capita when comparing 2006 to 2014.

Despite the low per capita consumption, beef expenditures grew 5.9 percent in 2014, year-on-year, with seafood on its heels with an expenditure growth of 5.7 percent in 2014.

Seafood still only makes up 9 percent of US protein consumption with poultry leading the way at 39 percent.

However, among its fellow proteins, seafood made up 18 percent of total spending by consumers on protein in 2014.

Also, households are spending more on protein. Household food spending grew by $5 from 2013 to 2014 to $5,926. Of that total, meat protein expenditure grew by $33 up to $833 in 2014.

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 2pm EST

Things are bad for beef...but getting better

It's a good time to be in seafood. At least compared to beef.

Cattlefax's Duane Lenz was once again invited to present at GSMC, offering attendees a fascinating insight into one of seafood's biggest competitors: beef.

"I have to tell you there are some headwinds here," Lenz said of the cattle sector.

The industry has faced a huge drought across the central US, which has continued to impact the secctor.

Cattle inventory has continue to decline, and even with a dip in total head,

"Raising cattle is a break even business," Lenz said, but extreme profitabiliity in past two years leads to the same commodity cycle we see in seafood: the floodgates on production open.

"It will be the fastest expansion in the beef herd in history," Lenz said.

That said, the levels in the next two years will still be far below historical levels.

That increase in per capita beef supply will have a predictable outcome: lower prices.

Though beef consumption has been trending down, Lenz cautions that that is more a result of supply, not demand.

"We aren't making as much beef," Lenz said. "If they wanted to eat a lot more beef, it's not there."

That's going to change. Beyond beef, poultry is also set to spike.

"Per person we're going to have a lot more protein to consume," Lenz said.

--Drew Cherry

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Tuesday, Jan. 19, 1:47pm EST

US consumers spend more on seafood, but still not enough

Based off of USDA information, consumers spent a lot more in on eating out while at-home consumption also increased.

From 2014 to 2015, at-home consumption grew by $2 billion to $767 billion while away-from-home consumption jumped by $45 billion to $742 billion.

Of the total $764.7 billion consumers spent on food at home in 2014, $29.9 billion was seafood, which is up from the $28.1 billion consumers spent on seafood in 2013. However, looking at the percentages, seafood has lost its share of consumer expenditures for food at home since 2010. In 2010, seafood made up 4.4 percent of total at-home food expenditures while that percentage only averaged 3.78 percent from 2011 to 2014.

The same goes for away-from-home seafood expenditures among consumers.

Of the total $697.3 billion consumers spent on food away from home in 2014, only $61.4, or 8.8 percent, was seafood. In comparison, 9.8 percent of total food expenditures was seafood in 2011

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan. 19, 1:40pm EST

Drop in seafood landings offset by increased imports

In 2012, US seafood consumption was 4.5 billion pounds while US seafood imports was 5.51 billion pounds. In 2013, seafood consumption grew to 4.57 billion pounds but imports dropped to 5.32 billion pounds.

In 2014, increased imports drove increased consumption with US consumers eating 4.64 billion pounds while imports grew to 5.48 billion pounds.

Seafood landings dropped in 2014 to 7.84 billion pounds from 8.05 billion pounds the year prior. Despite a decline in landings, 2014 was another good year for exports as seafood exports increased to 3.29 billion pounds up from 3.21 billion pounds in 2013.

--Kim Tran

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Tuesday, Jan. 19, 1:35pm EST

Seafood consumption sees silver lining

According to a presentation from American Seafoods Group's Ron Rogness, per capita consumption of seafood has dropped since 2001 to 2003, but 2013 and 2014 saw the first two consecutive years of growth up to 14.6. In 2006, the per capita consumption of seafood was 16.5.

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Total consumption increased by about 70 million pounds. In 2014, total seafood consumption was 4.64 billion pounds, compared to 4.92 billion pounds in 2006.

The seafood sales to retail in 2014 were the second largest increase in last 10 years at $44.1 billion and consumer expenditures also grew in 2014 by $5.3 billion to $91.3 billion. In comparison, seafood sales to retail was $32.8 in 2007 and consumers spent $67.9 billion in 2007.

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Tuesday, Jan. 19, 1:15pm EST

Company selects new sales head

Southern US seafood company Harvest Select named chef Michael Locascio has its new vice president of sales.

Read full story here.

--Avani Nadkarni

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 1:12 pm EST

Watch your mouth

As in years past, the NFI underscored the importance of adhering to US antitrust guidelines. NFI counsel Bob DeHaan said that in this day and age -- with the elephant of the antitrust suits against the tuna giants sitting in the room -- attendees have to be more careful than ever.

Trade meetings can be viewed as "potential breeding grounds for collusive and unlawful behavior," DeHaan said.

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 1:00 pm EST

A fond farewell

Outgoing NFI Chairman Judson Reis started the conference on a somber note, by memorializing Ken Conrad of Libby Hill Seafood, himself a former NFI chairman. The Seafood Industry Research Foundation (SIRF) created a memorial in Conrad's name.

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Tuesday, Jan 19, 08:59 am EST

Let's get it started

The conference portion of the 2016 Global Seafood Market Conference (GSMC) kicks off at 1pm today with an opening session comparing seafood consumption to that of protein rivals such as chicken, beef and pork.

Ron Rogness of American Seafoods Group will oversee a discussion and the presentation of current data on how well seafood is selling in the US market compared to other proteins.

 

-- John Fiorillo

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Monday, Jan 18, 08:45 am EST

Shrimp to get social media revamp

The NFI Shrimp Council is aiming for year-round shrimp consumption, Chairman Bill Dresser told IntraFish in an interview in the run up to this week's conference.

After a tough year battling negative focus on the sector, the Shrimp Council will focus attention on social media and consumer outreach, he said.

Read the full interview here.

-- Drew Cherry

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Monday, Jan 18, 08:30 am EST

Fresh = healthy

Fresh translates to healthy in the restaurant industry, and that's why sushi does so well, says NPD Group market specialist Warren Solocheck.

Solecheck will be presenting custom consumer research to GSMC attendees on Thursday. The presentation will focus on consumer "craveability" and how the seafood industry can build craveability into menu items.

Sushi, he said, is a good combination of freshness and craveability.

"So if you take that freshness and add something to it – different flavor profile, something spicey – it becomes, ‘I am eating something fresh but it has a very unique flavor profile.’”

-- John Fiorillo

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Monday, Jan 18, 08:00 am EST

Great time to be in the seafood industry

National Fisheries Institute (NFI) President John Connelly is bullish on the prospects for the US seafood industry in 2016.

"We are big and growing. We sometimes all focus so much on per-capita consumption that we forget that the US is the second largest market for seafood. NFI’s members remain in good condition, with the dollar helping some and not being so beneficial to others," he said.

"The American economy is strong enough to support the kinds of sales, both at home and out of the house, that benefit us. The drop in energy prices particularly helps in a sector with strong restaurant sales," Connelly said.

-- John Fiorillo

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