It's looking to be a smaller year for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon production that will bring larger fish with it in Alaska, according to forecasters with the University of Washington's Alaska Salmon Program.
Chris Boatright, a salmon program manager and research scientist with the University of Washington, predicted nearly 50 million sockeye are expected back to Bristol Bay this summer, when he spoke during a Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association (BBRSDA) webinar held online Thursday.
The forecast is in-line with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) predictions released for this season that put the run at 51 million fish, with total harvest predicted at 38 million-- a drastic reduction from last year's records for both run size and harvest.
The 2022 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run of 79 million fish is the largest run on record and was 81 percent above the 43.6 million average run for the latest 20-year period (2002–2021).
Last year's catch of just over 60 million sockeye salmon in Alaska's Bristol Bay means there could be a 37 percent reduction in harvests this season if forecasts pan out.
Boatright provided a harvest estimate similar to ADF&G's for this year, saying that for a total run of 50 million sockeye, the researchers would expect an inshore harvest of 35 million sockeye.
Nushagak will remain the powerhouse
Like last year, the Nushagak area is expected to be a leader when it comes to harvest totals, with data predicting the river district will get the largest proportion of the salmon harvest at over 70 million pounds.
Last year, the Nushagak district overall accounted for nearly 37 percent of the Bristol Bay's record-breaking harvest.
Overall, the data projects Bristol Bay having an inshore harvest of 195 million pounds. The Naknek-Kvichak district and the Egegik river districts are also expected to have major inshore harvests, each potentially totaling over 55 million pounds.
The forecast in the Nushagak did not take into account a new king salmon management plan implemented in the river district that could mean a later-than-usual opening date, potentially allowing 12 percent of the king salmon run passing through the district to do so without fishing gear in the water.
Boatright said there's a chance escapement in the district could increase by 800,000 fish under the new regulations but that it is still too early to know how it will impact fishing there.
Larger sockeye
While Bristol Bay has experienced record runs over the past two years, that has also impacted fish size, according to Boatright.
"These really large returns have seen small fish," he said. "There is an inverse relationship between total run size in Bristol Bay and size of fish. All of those runs from the last five years exceed 58 million sockeye."
Fish are also predicted to be larger than last year, he said. Sockeye with two years in the ocean are coming back at around 4.6 pounds, and sockeye with three years in the ocean coming back to Bristol Bay predicted at 6.2 pounds.
The larger fish should help make up for the smaller run, he noted, with harvest estimates for this year looking similar to 2021. The news could provide some relief to the Alaska salmon industry, which has been swamped with inventory due to two record years in a row of harvests.
In general, looking at the forecasting data between 2000 and 2022, it tends to have a median error range of 15.5 percent, Boatright said.
Colder water
University of Washington professor Daniel Schindler presented data at the webinar showing ocean entry periods of exceptional Bristol Bay sockeye returns are notable as they have come with very warm summertime sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Bering Sea.
"The bottom line is Bristol Bay smolts benefited from those heat waves and in the last year or two," he said.
Eastern Bering Sea temperatures were exceptionally warm for 2014, 2016, and 2019, nearing 11.5 degrees Celsius. Before 2013, those temperatures generally averaged between 9.5 and 10 degrees Celsius.
"This last decade has been so warm in the Eastern Bering and the Gulf of Alaska that we’ve had to rescale our temperature graphs," Schindler noted.
But those high sea surface temperatures are now dissipating with El Nino predicted to cool coastal waters.
"Right now things are surprisingly cold along the coast even though they’re warm in offshore waters," he said.
He added that in the next year or two the El Nino pattern may result in "slightly reduced marine survival rates for sockeye in the shorter term."
