Seafood sales in US supermarkets continue to weaken, and two stalwarts are showing signs consumers are turning toward other options, according to new data released Wednesday.

While fresh salmon continued to rise in overall sales in September, rising 5.7 percent to $202 million, volume of the species flatlined over the course of the month, showing zero growth, according to IRI retail data compiled by 210 Analytics.

Salmon is far and away the most-consumed fresh fish at US retail, and a leading indicator of consumer sentiment about fresh seafood in general. Salmon has shown value sales growth for several consecutive months.

Even more troubling for the seafood sector last month were shrimp sales. Frozen shrimp, which makes up a significant volume of overall frozen seafood sales at US retail, fell dramatically, in both raw and cooked formats.

Raw shrimp sales volumes fell 11.4 percent in September versus the same month last year, though sales slipped less, declining 4.6 percent to $155 million.

Frozen cooked shrimp performed worse, with volume sales falling 14.2 percent and volume sales falling 5.4 percent to $121 million. Frozen cooked shrimp sales have been falling since the first quarter of 2021.

Bad signs for fresh

With the exception of salmon, nearly all of the key fresh categories tracked by 210 Analytics showed a sales decline by value, but some species were hit harder than others. The volume of fresh cod and tilapia sales, for example, fell by 22.7 percent and 42.6 percent over the month.

Sales value for both species have been on a quarter-to-quarter decline since the third quarter of 2021.

Fresh seafood sales overall hit $488 million in September, 7.8 percent below a year ago. Sales volume fell 11.5 percent.

In the third quarter, fresh volume sales were down 13.9 percent against last year. And while sales volumes climbed by 0.5 percent over the same quarter in 2019, the impact of inflation was clear, with the value of those sales climbing nearly 20 percent.

No solace in the freezer case

While frozen seafood sales have typically risen in contrast to fresh declines, September numbers showed that was not the case.

September's frozen seafood sales of $517 million were 3.8 percent below the same month last year. However, sales volume slipped 2.8 percent and unit sales were down 13.2 percent.

Shelf-stable seafood sales, which took a tumble after a pandemic rush for canned tuna, climbed 7.8 percent in September over a year ago to $211 million, but volume sales were down 3.2 percent and unit sales were off 5 percent from a year ago.

US retail seafood sales likely to sink deeper as inflation, recessionary mindset grip consumers
 Read more

More problems ahead?

Consumers may be hitting a wall when it comes to their seafood purchasing, according to Bob Cerullo, director of seafood for Wakefern Food Corp, the largest retailer-owned cooperative in the United States.

Speaking at the Global Seafood Alliance GOAL conference in Seattle recently, Cerullo said customers are finding less and less value in seafood, with "units in a lot of places across the store down dramatically."

With inflation and the recession weighing heavily on consumers, the volume of US retail sales of seafood are basically back to 2019 levels, losing significant sales gains during COVID.

"I'm not really alarmed for the final quarter of this year," Cerullo said of seafood sales at US retail. "What concerns me going forward, I have serious concerns about a recessionary period coming that we haven’t seen in some time."

Read more