Global shrimp production is forecast to jump 7 percent next year and reach 6 million metric tons for the first time ever, driven by a sharp expansion of Ecuador's shrimp farming industry, according to the Global Seafood Alliance's (GSA) annual production survey.
When 2022 numbers are finalized, global shrimp production is expected to be up 4 percent to 5.6 million metric tons, following an 11.5 percent increase in 2021.
Much of the growth is being driven by Ecuador. Rabobank senior analyst Gorjan Nikolik said the almost 41 percent growth seen in 2021 in Ecuador was "the single largest nominal growth of any aquaculture industry that I've seen."
After an expected 18 percent-plus growth in 2022, production in Ecuador could reach an estimated 1.45 million metric tons next year, supported by an increase above 14 percent.
Nikolik presented the shrimp survey results during the 2022 GOAL conference in Seattle on Tuesday.
The rise of the Ecuadorian industry appears to threatening the dominance of India's hold on North America's shrimp market.
"I would not be surprised to see Ecuador as the number one supplier a couple of years from now to the US market," Kontali Senior Analyst Chris van Bussel said.
Indian shrimp production is expected to contract again in 2022 because of disease, weather, feed costs and falling prices, Nikolik said.
An 11 percent increase in production last year is expected to be followed by a 4.7 percent contraction this year, with a return to growth of 3.5 percent to around 850,000 metric tons forecast in 2023, he added.
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