Ecuadorian shrimp production is poised to blow past projections this year as higher prices and a recovery in foodservice markets prompted farmers to increase output, according to the Global Seafood Alliance's (GSA) annual production survey.
Production growth for the South American nation's producers was constrained at around 5 percent to just over 700,000 metric tons in 2020 as the global COVID-19 pandemic gripped the world.
However this year the production growth figure for this year will smash last years forecast for 2021 projections and clock in at as much as 940,000 metric tons -- a jump of 34 percent.
"It just tells you how quickly the shrimp market can pivot given good prices," said Rabobank senior analyst Gorjan Nikolik, who presented shrimp survey results during the 2021 virtual GOAL conference.
Ecuadorian shrimp prices reached a near five-year high of $3.13 (€2.78) per pound in October. This year prices have climbed 33 percent.
"It is a short cycle a lot can happen in a few months," Nikolik added.
Ecuador stood out as the brightest spot in the global shrimp farming sector as other countries battled a range of issues.
India, Ecuador's largest rival exporter to the US market, saw a 12.5 percent reduction in shrimp production last year, as the country's producers battled a myriad of problems, including strict lockdowns, a lack of seeding and difficulties in getting processed product out of the country, not to mention low prices internationally.
India's woes left the door open for Ecuador to take over the mantle of the world's largest exporter.
Indian production is expected to rebound by 6 percent this year to just over 700,000 metric tons, but it could take until 2023 to fully recover from 2020's contraction, Nikolik said.
While United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) numbers showed that Chinese production surpassed 2 million metric tons in 2018, industry sources point to a much more modest total above 500,000 metric tons a year later.
In the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam, which produces sizeable volumes of both vannamei and monodon, production slipped 1 percent last year to just shy of 700,000 metric tons.
Vietnam's farmers are forecast to produce almost 14 percent more in 2021 but just under 1 percent more next year.
Thailand, once the shrimp-producing champion of the Southeast Asia region before being struck down by EMS (Early Mortality Syndrome) disease in 2013, suffered a 1 percent drop in production last year but is expected to grow to close 8 percent this year edging above 400,000 metric tons and post 3.8 percent growth in 2022.
Meanwhile producers in Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua are expected to see growth this year and next.
