Fears about the combined effects of a second winter spike in COVID-19 cases and the clock running down on Brexit hurdles are stoking nerves in the frozen foods and logistics sectors.

With space in cold storage centers tightening even before the annual Christmas build up of stocks, government ministers admit that in the worst case scenario lines of up to 7,000 trucks could stretch 17 miles to the vital port of Dover in the aftermath of the UK transitioning out of the EU.

Without a Brexit deal, experts are warning that the outlook for companies storing and moving food products around this winter could be tricky.

Uncertaintly reigns

Two months into the pandemic back in May British Frozen Foods Federation (BFFF) CEO Richard Harrow reported that the cold storage industry was "not awash with space."

The situation hardly appears to have changed.

"Space is still relatively tight. I think we are getting people building stocks for Brexit because of the uncertainty," Harrow told IntraFish in an update.

Uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom's inability or unwillingness to sign a trade deal with the European Union as it transitions out of the world's most affluent trade bloc at the end of the year has left cold storage space tight and logistics firms with the prospect of long delays and other disruptions.

Meantime retailers, suppliers and manufacturers have learned and adjusted from the experience of unprecedented demand at the outset of COVID lockdowns in March, according to David Howorth, executive director at Scala, a leading provider of management services for the supply chain and logistics sector.

Will higher rates of processing absenteeism strike in second wave?

One of the more remarkable features of the first coronavirus wave was that the food industry managed to maintain supplies to consumers, despite surges in demand and many other logistical challenges, according to Andrew Kuyk, director general of the UK Seafood Industry Alliance trade group.

While there is no reason to suppose measures put in place then would be any less successful the second time around, Kuyk said it is becoming clearer why the government has imposed new measures banning the gathering of groups of more than six people in homes, at dining tables pubs, shops, leisure venues, or places of worship.

"There is now evidence that one of the bigger risks at the moment is ‘community transmission’ – as a result of the easing of lockdown measures – meaning that food workers may now be at greater risk of infection outside the workplace, hence leading to increased rates of absenteeism," Kuyk said.

A long, Brexit-shaped shadow

While there is confidence that the second spike and any forthcoming lockdown would be managed without the shortages experienced in the spring, Brexit negotiations are the unknown quantity casting a long shadow over supply chain planning, Howorth said.

"The government’s ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ makes for sobering reading and we believe that should we crash out of the EU without a deal, it is not unreasonable to expect chaotic scenes as supply chains are stretched like never before."

Each passing day is step toward a potential winter of chaos, Howorth said.

"While it is pleasing that the government is acknowledging the scale of the possible disruption, we can only hope that these warnings are being heard across Whitehall, and industry and hauliers given greater clarity on what is required."

Brexit negotiations, now into their ninth round in the quest for an agreement that satisfies both sides, have stalled over key issues such as fisheries and allowable state-aid.

An EU summit scheduled for Oct 17-18 is seen by some as a make or break moment for a Brexit agreement with any deal needing to be ratified by all 27 members states in the nine remaining weeks before Christmas.

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson keen to present some good news to voters amid widespread criticism of his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK does appear to be showing signs of conceding some ground on fishing rights to the EU industry.

This may come in the form of offering a three year transition period before UK vessels would get a greater share of quotas.

Despite the EU announcing on Oct. 1 that is launching legal action against the UK for breaking the terms of the separate withdrawal agreement trade and security deal, talks are continuing.

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UK logistics sector fears 'chaotic scenes' as supply chains 'stretched like never before'