Ecuador's shrimp exports to China slowed in January from the remarkable pace of increases set last year, but a question mark hangs over whether the deceleration is related to the coronavirus outbreak or a natural tapering off from a year of huge growth.

Consignments were up 94 percent by volume to 65.9 million pounds (29,892 metric tons) and 92 percent by value to $189.4 million (€175.4 million) which, while substantial, shows a marked slowing from the previous 12 months' growth. During this period, the Ecuadorian industry benefited from a series of steep rises that saw overall volumes in 2019 increase 2.5 times compared with the previous 12 months, with even a temporary ban on the products from some of Ecuador's biggest producers having little impact.

In each the first 11 months of last year the industry posted sometimes staggering triple figure year-over-year percentage increases, but in December the pace slowed.

So is Ecuador's shrimp export boom to China running out of steam? Is this a natural re-ordering after a remarkable run, or are there other factors at play?

Earlier this month it became clear that delays in orders from Chinese foodservice customers have affected Ecuadorian shrimp consignments to the Asian powerhouse nation.

Restaurants in China are a vital source of business for Ecuador's shrimp producers but with people in China avoiding crowds, restaurants and supermarket chains have seen custom fall away, leaving stocks of frozen shrimp uneaten.

Despite this, José Antonio Camposano, president of the National Chamber of Aquaculture, was cited in the Ecuadorian press as saying that not shipping shrimp to China would be "unthinkable." And the Ecuadorian industry sees the Chinese authorities' decision to end the extended New Year holiday without a further prolongation as a positive sign, which could lead to a quick recovery in demand.

In the wider picture Ecuador's global export volumes in January were 23 percent higher than a year ago, at 109.7 million pounds, with revenues up 19 percent at $283 million (€262.1 million).

A free trade deal with the United States is also thought to be in the cards, and a separate free trade deal with Mexico is also a possibility, both of which could take the pressure of Ecuador's Chinese market reliance.

Markets

Is Ecuadorian shrimp running out of luck in China?