After Peru's second anchovy season was cut dramatically short in north central waters in January because of the abundance of juvenile fish, it remains unclear whether the full quota will be landed after the first season of 2020 was delayed amid the coronavirus pandemic.

By June 21, 60 percent, or 1.4 million metric tons of the quota had been landed. The season began on May 13, weeks later than in previous years.

"I would say that right now actually the mood is more positive than it was before the start of the season," Enrico Bachis, market research director at the Marine Ingredients Organization (IFFO) told IntraFish.

"Now some companies are saying that even 2 million could be possible." That figure would equate to 83 percent of the total quota.

Lockdown cast a shadow over season

At the beginning of the season, expectations were for landings between 1.5-1.8 million metric tons, amid the presence of continued high juvenile numbers, Bachis said.

Strict lockdown conditions and a nighttime curfew aimed at tackling COVID-19 added to concerns as they made it impossible to carry out maintenance to fishing vessels.

The imposition of sanitary protocols aimed at curbing the potential spread of coronvirus and the need to manage onboard crew and staff at processing plants created uncertainty, as did the reduced number of vessels authorized to operate because they had to be big enough to allow for social distancing of crew members. Rising numbers of positive cases in Peru also led to a reluctance among fishermen to return to the water for fear of contracting the virus.

Race against time

In three of the last five years, the first season has ended three times on July 31 and once in the first week of July.

With Peru heading for winter, the late starting date stoked fears there would be insufficient time to fulfill the quota as rougher waters complicated the job of vessel captains and their crews.

While in the first 40 days of fishing there have been many mini fishing bans instigated in central fishing grounds to avoid the capture of juveniles, landings are reported to be "good" in areas such as Chicama and Chimbote.

Firms were also, in the end, able to carry out maintenance, crews were found and most vessels authorized by the authorities.

A rule change also allowed smaller vessels to operate, while sanitary protocols have been successfully implemented and good weather has reduced the numbers of days with ports closed.

Weather ... and COVID... closing in

But the industry is not home and dry yet, amid fears the full quota may not be landed because of expected colder water temperatures that could disperse the anchovy, making fishing operations complicated.

Peru has risen to sixth in the global league table of coronavirus cases registering 257,447 at the time of writing. The death toll in the Andean nation has reached 8,223.

The rising number of Covid cases in Peru may at some point might lead the government to impose stricter measures, affecting the ability of fishermen to carry out their work.

Winter weather conditions may also restrict days at sea.

All eyes on Peru

As ever the final outcome will be watched closely by the global fishmeal industry with Peru considered to be the world's 'swing producer'.

Before the season began speculation swirled that because of the cutting short of the 2019 second season non-fulfilled pre-sales ran to 100,000-150,000 metric tons, but that the new quota could produce 570,000 metric tons of fishmeal, meaning there would be plenty of new harvest to sell whatever the already-sold tonnage.

While a 17 percent shortfall this time around may put a slightly different complexion on it, Pablo Trapunsky, CEO of fishing giant Pesquera Diamante, which has landed 80 percent of its quota so far, expects firms to land all of their alloted catches.

"I hope to finish in the opening days of July," he said.

"There is fishing and I see no reason not to believe that everyone is completing their quotas. If it is true that this time is complicated by rough seas, that will make advances slower, but it will not prevent fishing."

Since original publication of this report Exalmar CFO Raul Briceno confirmed that 64 percent of the quota has been caught meaning 870,000 metric tons remains to be harvested.

The executive calculates that in the remaining 38 days that vessels need to harvest 22,000 metric tons a day compared with 38,000 metric tons a day averaged so far.

"Fishing is concentrated, there are no signs that sea conditions change for the presence of anchovy," he said.

"The only thing that can affect it is the closure of ports due to bad weather, but it would have to be too much. There are also no signs of spawning to cancel the season or high presence of juveniles."

Fisheries

UPDATE: Peru fishing firms in race against clock to land full anchovy quota