The catch of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, the world's single most valuable wild salmon harvest, is projected to decline next season, according to estimates released Friday by the Alaska Department of Fish & Game.
A total of 51 million sockeye salmon are expected to return to the Bristol Bay river systems in 2021, which would allow for a harvest of around 36.4 million fish in Bristol Bay and around 1 million fish in the South Peninsula.
This year, fishermen in Bristol Bay harvested 39 million fish, worth an estimated $139.5 million.
The number was a dramatic decline from 2019, when the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon harvest reached 43 million -- the second-largest on record.
Ex-vessel value for the Bristol Bay run that year was a record-breaking $306.5 million (€277.3 million) across all species, more than double the 20-year average of $124 million (€112.3 million).
ADF&G scientists have used the same forecasting methods since 2001 for Bristol Bay. On average, the agency's forecasts have been under by 11 percent on average, ranging as low as 36 percent below the actual run to as high as 21 percent above the actual run.
A bleak 2020
The ex-vessel value for all species harvested in the 2020 Alaska commercial salmon fishery fell 56 percent to $295.2 million (€249.8 million).
Adjusted for inflation, it is the lowest ex-vessel value for the fishery since 2006.
ADF&G said a total of 116.8 million fish were harvested, a 44 percent decrease from 2019 and the thirteenth lowest since records began in 1975. In terms of weight, the all-species salmon harvest of 517.5 million pounds is the eighth lowest.
Of this total, sockeye salmon accounted for approximately 59 percent of the total value at $174.9 million (€148 million) and 40 percent of the harvest at 46.1 million fish. Bristol Bay, where the majority of sockeye salmon are harvested, had an estimated ex-vessel value of around $140.7 million (€119.1 million).
